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Wilders's far-right PVV party leads by 2,300 votes as more ballots are counted
Wilders’s PVV is currently in the lead by just over 2,300 votes, NOS reported, with more ballots to be counted from the Caribbean Netherlands, overseas postal vote, and some cities, including parts of Amsterdam.
So, it’s as close as it could be, and it could even take days before we know the final result, as postal votes will take a moment to count.
It all matters as coalition-building in the Netherlands can take months.
After the vote, an informateur – usually linked to the largest party – tests possible options that could command a majority. Potential partners then negotiate an agreement and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament.
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Jakub Krupa
Let’s go back to the Dutch elections and take a look at the latest numbers next…
French police arrests five suspects over Louvre heist
Meanwhile over in Paris, French police have arrested five more people, including a prime suspect, over this month’s daring Louvre museum robbery, the city’s prosecutor said.
AFP reported that Paris prosecutor Laure Beccuau said the five suspects detained on Wednesday included a main suspect whose DNA linked him to the brazen seven-minute heist, though none of the loot had been found.
“We had him in our sights,” she said.
“As for the other individuals who are in police custody, they are people who may be able to provide us with information about the course of events.” She said it was “too early” to give additional details about the suspects.
The five detentions took place in and around Paris, particularly in Seine-Saint-Denis, a region just outside the French capital.
Poland agrees to postpone Belarus border reopening after talks with Lithuania
Separately, Lithuanian prime minister Inga Ruginienė said this morning that Poland has agreed to postpone its plans to reopen border crossings with Belarus, despite much-trumpeted plans announced by the country’s prime minister Donald Tusk earlier this week (Europe Live, Tuesday).
The move comes after Lithuania rushed to close its borders with Belarus until at least the end of October in retaliation for recent smuggling balloons, believed to be launched from Belarus, which disrupted the country’s airspace and forced airport closures.
Tusk’s plans to push ahead with reopening Poland’s two borders with Belarus raised some eyebrows in Lithuania, and has now been delayed until further notice.
Ruginienė said she had a “very detailed, comprehensive” conversation with Tusk last night in a bid to coordinate Warsaw and Vilnius’s actions, Lithuanian public broadcaster LRT reported.
She said that Lithuania wanted Belarus to understand it would “not tolerate any hybrid attacks and will do everything to manage threats and ensure the safety of our population.”
Poland scrambles jets, briefly closes airports in response to Russian attacks on western Ukraine
In response to Russian drone attacks on Ukraine overnight, Poland had to briefly close airports in eastern cities of Radom and Lublin.
Two Ukrainian energy facilities in the western region of Lviv, bordering Poland, were hit overnight, the regional governor said, with Ukraine’s prime minister Yulia Svyrydenko criticising Russian “systematic energy terror.”
Both airports have reopened late morning.
Poland’s army also said earlier today that Polish and allied aircraft were scrambled to monitor the border as a precautionary measure.
The country remains on high alert after last month’s incursion of over 20 Russian drones into Polish airspace, which prompted international outrage with Poland calling for urgent Nato and UN consultations over the incident.
Ukraine says Russia hit with 650 drones, 50 missiles overnight
Elsewhere, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia launched over 650 drones and 50 missiles against Ukraine overnight in “a complex, combined” strike against the country.
He said that “tens of people have been reported injured” in a strike on residential buildings in Zaporizhzhia, with at least two dead.
Separately, Ivan Fedorov, the governor of Zaporizhzhia region, said that at least 13 people were injured.
“There have also been many vile strikes on energy facilities and civilian life across the regions – Vinnytsia, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Cherkasy, Poltava, Dnipro, Chernihiv, Sumy, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Lviv regions,” he said.
Zelenskyy says that as “Russia continues its terrorist war against life itself, … it’s crucial that every such vile attack on civilians boomerangs back on Russia with concrete consequences – sanctions and real pressure.”
“We count on America, Europe, and the G7 countries not to ignore this Moscow’s intent to destroy everything,” he added.
Morning opening: Goedemorgen
Jakub Krupa
The vote count is almost done in the Dutch parliamentary election, with the far-right PVV party of anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders narrowly ahead of the centrist D66 with 99.6% votes counted.
But the difference between the two parties is just under 1,400 votes, and many more are still yet to be counted, including parts of Amsterdam and 135,000 votes from abroad.
While it definitely symbolically matters whether PVV or D66 will come out on top, it seems that it will be the centrist with their charismatic leader, Rob Jetten, who will likely lead the talks to form the next government, with Wilders going back to the opposition.
As my colleague Jon Henley noted, the shift in the early hours of Thursday is unlikely to alter the composition of the next government coalition. All major mainstream parties have ruled out governing with Wilders after he brought down the last coalition led by his PVV.
That does not mean, however, that the coalition talks will be any easier and the talks between potential partners are widely expected to take months before the new administration emerge.
The outgoing prime minister, Dick Schoof, said yesterday he hoped they would be wrapped up by, erm, August next year, as he wants to run a marathon in Sydney. Call it a deadline of sorts.
I will bring you all the latest reactions from the Netherlands and beyond as we see the results come in. The official announcement of the final result is expected next week.
It’s Thursday, 30 October 2025, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.
Good morning.
