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For better or worse it has been lashing down in south-west London. Good news for restocking the reservoirs but rather less so for dry-ball rugby. Had England played New Zealand 24 hours earlier it would have resembled a game of outdoor water polo and, although the matchday forecast is less biblical, a decidedly damp, grey afternoon awaits.
Is it some kind of celestial clue that England’s on-field drought against the All Blacks might be about to break? It is now 13 years since the last men’s victory over New Zealand at what was once called Twickenham, so long ago that Maro Itoje was still at school. Troublemaker by Olly Murs (featuring Flo Rida) topped the UK charts and the nation was basking in a warm, fuzzy post-London Olympics glow that was supposed to last indefinitely.
Admittedly the convincing 2019 Rugby World Cup semi-final win in Yokohama was a striking exception – it remains England’s most authoritative performance in the past 20 years – but otherwise the story has been one of recurring near misses. The All Blacks are never beaten until the scoreboard says so and only eight English teams have had first-hand experience of how good that feels.
All of which adds extra meaning to this weekend’s eagerly awaited encounter. Not by accident have England won their past nine Tests but, even so, this will be the true measurement of their progress. Success will affirm and validate their rising confidence while defeat by the world’s second-highest ranked team has the capacity to do the opposite.
Listening to England’s players this week, though, has been to sense a mental corner has already been turned. While many of the same names still feature on the team sheet there is a clearer collective sense of direction these days, exemplified by George Ford’s assessment of why the team have started closing out the type of games that had previously slipped through their fingers. “When it does come to that last 20 minutes, we’ve found a way to win,” said the fly-half, picked ahead of Fin and Marcus Smith to be the team’s tactical heartbeat.
“We’ve felt a lot calmer and more composed in those moments. That isn’t to say we’ve nailed it or cracked it because you’ve got to go and do it all over again. But I think we can [now] have a bit of confidence if it does get to that stage.”
The so-called “Pom Squad” off the bench have visibly helped and could easily make a difference again. Henry Pollock has been running around in training all week impersonating Ardie Savea while Tom Curry also brings a blast of fresh turbo thrust which, to Ford’s mind, will also be essential: “The moment you sit off or become a bit passive is the moment they could potentially get on top.”
So far this recipe has worked a treat. In their previous two November games against Australia and Fiji, England have won the second half by an aggregate margin of 39-5. There is clearly nothing wrong with their fitness but, given the potentially tricky conditions and New Zealand’s transition threats, an emphasis on accuracy in defence and attack will also be vital.
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With that in mind we can expect to see England’s players gathering regularly in huddles, the idea being to reiterate the importance of sticking to their processes even in times of extreme strife. “I suppose it’s about calming everyone down, giving the lads clarity on what we need to do next,” said Ford. “To make sure we come out the other side with plenty of intensity about us and then real clear direction. I know that sounds quite a simple thing to do, but when you’re doing it three, four, five times a game, it’s hugely important.”
As the 32-year-old Ford is fully aware himself, there was some room for improvement in that respect last year when his potentially match-clinching penalty hit a post and a last-gasp, hurried drop goal attempt – “If we look back, we probably went back about 15, 20 metres before we kicked the ball” – drifted wide. A perfect opportunity to avenge that frustrating 24-22 loss looms. “Let’s absolutely keep going at them,” he said. “Don’t get me wrong, they are a good team. But what’s the point in stepping on the field at the weekend if we don’t believe we can go and win? Of course we do.”
His captain, Itoje, has been echoing that front-foot message, desperate to follow in the stud marks of the boys of 2012 who thundered their way to a 38-21 win under Stuart Lancaster, ending New Zealand’s 20-game unbeaten run. “Thirteen years later people are still remembering it,” said Itoje. “Manu Tuilagi was the most valuable player, Brad Barritt was amazing, the pack were great. You could see Twickenham was bouncing … it was one that continues to live long in the memory. We want to be the ninth English side to do it. That’s the opportunity that’s there for us. In life you don’t get many of these opportunities so we want to go out there and take it. I think we’re capable of doing that.”
It will partly hinge, of course, on exactly how much New Zealand still have in the tank after their close call at Murrayfield last Saturday. The return of their captain, Scott Barrett, will help and Savea is never knowingly beaten. The truth of the matter, though, is that the All Blacks pack is going to have to step up physically if England’s aerial game and newfound ruthlessness in the last quarter is to be denied.
There is also Sam Underhill’s tackling ability and a pumped-up crowd to be taken into account, with Itoje emphasising the psychological impact that home support can have on big days like this. “There is a real feeling of excitement as we get off the bus and walk to the stadium.
“The looks on the fans’ faces are of genuine pride and, as players, we feel the responsibility to live up to that. I would encourage the fans to be as proud and as noisy as they possibly can.”
Even in the absence of any blue sky and sunshine, in summary, England are intent on creating a feelgood vibe. “Test match rugby is all about winning and finding a way to win,” said Ford. “It’s not always hunky dory or pretty. And that’s why it’s a Test, because sometimes you’ve got to work it out on the hoof.” History would indicate a tight, tense contest but England finally possess the inner belief to rinse away past disappointments.
