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Floods could hit England while the country is still in drought, forecasters have said.
Heavy downpours threatening lives and property could hit this autumn, with the rain devastating some areas but still not providing respite from months of dry weather that have left rivers, groundwater and reservoirs drained.
The Met Office chief meteorologist, Will Lang, said on droughts and floods: “Those two things are not mutually exclusive. You can have heightened flood risk as well as drought conditions. The current forecast for unsettled weather, that is unlikely to be enough to reverse the effects of drought over the next few weeks over the autumn.”
If the drought is to be declared over, Lang said, “we are going to need more rain than that.” He also pointed out that it may not fall where it is needed most, in the east of the country.
Caroline Douglass, the executive director for flooding at the Environment Agency, said drought conditions could exacerbate any floods: “Heavy rainfall on really dry areas can actually cause flooding, really hard soil can act like concrete, causing run-off on to roads and harder surfaces.”
Heavy flood rain would not be sufficient to end the drought, she said: “What we want is flowing, steady rain that wets things up nicely, not sudden heavy flood events. There certainly is not an end to a drought yet.”
A new weather and climate outlook from the Met Office indicates an increased likelihood of a wetter than average autumn, which has led experts to fear that there could be floods.
The government floods taskforce, which was set up last autumn after years of misery caused by heavy downpours, will be meeting on Monday.
Experts from the Met Office and Environment Agency will be advising ministers on how to prepare for potential floods this autumn and winter season.
Last year, there were multiple devastating floods with thousands of homes damaged, and 20 people lost their lives.
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The flood action group has so far taken measures such as delivering an improved forecasting service for surface water flooding, known as Rapid Flood Guidance, which gives short-notice updates on incoming flood risks and can help first responders direct their efforts.
The floods minister, Emma Hardy, said: “I know first-hand the disruption that flooding has on people’s lives and the unexpected costs it causes.
“Since being established last year, our taskforce has helped ensure communities have the protection they need from the dangers of flooding.”
With the predicted wet autumn approaching, the gathering of key flood responders – including Hardy, the emergency services and the Environment Agency – comes at a crucial time.
Lang added: “While the longer-range forecast leans towards wetter than average conditions for the coming months, rainfall is likely to vary significantly across regions. There is an increased likelihood of westerly weather patterns, which typically bring more rainfall to western and northern parts of the UK, while eastern and southern areas may experience drier conditions than the national average suggests.”
