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Ukraine’s agreement to support a US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in its war against Russia’s invasion has focused attention on what Moscow may or may not agree to, and what pressure can be brought to bear on Vladimir Putin by the Trump administration.
While the question has frequently been asked over the last few years as to what leverage Putin might have over Trump, the question here is what leverage Trump might have to persuade Putin.
On Wednesday the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, said the US expected to have contact with Russia later in the day, suggesting Washington hoped for a “positive answer”.
For its part, Moscow has said it needs to be briefed by Washington before replying, with the Kremlin press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, cautioning media against “getting ahead” of themselves, while suggesting Putin and Trump could speak in person.
By Wednesday it was clear that despite Rubio’s optimism, Putin intended to secure maximum advantage from talks over a ceasefire, even a preliminary and brief one.
“It is difficult for Putin to agree to this in its current form,” a senior Kremlin source said, adding: “Putin has a strong position because Russia is advancing.
“So yes, we are in favour of a truce with both hands, but we need at least framework guarantees and at least from the United States,” the source said.
The reality is that despite Russia’s heavy combat losses, damage to its economy, and diplomatic isolation, it believes it is winning the war.
It sees a ceasefire as benefiting Ukraine, even as the Russian military continues to make glacial progress at a large cost, and believes that view should be reflected in negotiations.
With Rubio admitting that territorial concessions had already been raised in talks with the Ukrainian delegation in Jeddah earlier this week, what Trump has to offer Putin appears more in the way of carrots than sticks – some of which would be hard for Ukraine to accept.
Wider US sanctions and tariffs against Russia – which Trump said he was considering in recent days – to persuade Moscow to agree to the ceasefire and negotiations are unlikely to have much impact.
As Alexander Kolyandr of the Center for European Policy Analysis said: “Russian exports to the US dropped by more than 80% last year, compared to the prewar period, to about $3bn, the lowest since 1992. The only damaging banking sanctions the US can swiftly impose would be the end of an exception from the existing measures, which allows some Russian banks to receive payments for energy exports.”
The alternative is what Trump could give Putin.
The US administration’s dealings with Moscow have already broken one taboo from the Biden era – deflating the widespread US-European unanimity that Russia should be diplomatically isolated.
It is in the economic sphere, however, that Russia remains most vulnerable. While the cost of war and international sanctions have not collapsed the economy in the way some suggested it might, high interest rates and low growth are slowly crippling Russia.
As an incentive, the US could offer an end to its banking sanctions and its prohibition on access to western technology, bearing in mind many non-US sanctions are likely to remain in place from countries allied with Ukraine.
Beyond that, issues become more complicated. Putin’s long-term demands have not shifted: the demilitarisation of Ukraine, a commitment that Ukraine will not join Nato in the future, and his desire to hold on to annexed territory – not least the Crimean peninsula.
None of which are likely to fly with Ukraine’s European allies.
Trump’s one-sided pressure on Ukraine – including the recent meeting with the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in the White House – may have persuaded Putin of the relative weakness of Trump’s leverage with Russia.
As John Lough, an associate fellow at Chatham House, wrote presciently last year, “Trump is likely to find that Putin believes he now has the upper hand in relations with the US because of his sense that the west has lost its dominance in global affairs.”
All of which leaves one meaningful lever: increasing US military support to Ukraine.
It will be lost on no one, however – particularly after the temporary suspension of such aid to Kyiv – that this is likely to be Trump’s least favoured approach.
