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On a weekday morning, an advertising van is weaving its way through the narrow streets of Runcorn town centre. On the side is a black and white picture of Nigel Farage with a quote from the Reform UK leader: “We are going to have to move to an insurance-based system of healthcare.”
The starting gun has been fired in the byelection that has been on the horizon since the sitting MP Mike Amesbury announced his intention to resign, and which could prove a huge test for Keir Starmer’s government.
Although a date has yet to be set for the vote, on Thursday evening Labour selected Karen Shore, a teacher and local councillor, to be its candidate. A source from Reform, Labour’s main challenger, said its candidate would be announced early next week.
In July last year, Labour easily won the seat, securing more than 50% of the vote, but now things are looking more difficult for the party. Depending on which poll you choose to rely on, Labour will either just hang on to the seat or lose to Reform.
The byelection was triggered by Amesbury’s suspension from the Labour party after he was filmed punching a constituent in a late-night altercation in Frodsham, a town in his constituency.
He received a 10-week prison sentence and was briefly jailed before his prison term was suspended on appeal. Shortly after his release, he announced his intention to wind down his office and resign from parliament.
Yet despite the reasons behind the byelection, it is not Amesbury’s name that disgruntled voters here most often cite among reasons for not voting Labour, but Starmer’s.
A Reform source said the party’s chances were likely to be boosted as they are also picking up support from Conservative voters similarly disappointed in their own party. “I think our message resonates to both,” they said.
In Runcorn, Ruth Hayter, 76, seems to speak for a chunk of the electorate when she says she voted Labour, but has found the party to be a “bit of a disappointment”.
“I thought they were more for the working class, [but] they don’t seem to be any more,” she said.
Andrew McClean, 80, said he would not be voting at all. He voted Labour at the general election, but he said: “They took everything off us, the winter fuel, the savings, TV licence.”
Lynne Bennett, 70, voted Labour in July, but this time, she said she would vote Reform, adding: “A lot of our family is going to do the same.”
“I won’t be voting Labour, put it that way,” she said. “And my family [has been] Labour, all our lives.”
Reform voters in Runcorn do not seem to have been put off by the party’s latest row, with the Great Yarmouth MP Rupert Lowe suspended and reported to the police after the party alleged he had made threats against its chair.
Lowe said he had instructed lawyers and suggested “untrue and false allegations” had been made about him after he criticised Farage.
“That’s one of the things that hasn’t put me off,” Helen, a 32-year-old business owner, said, adding she will vote Reform because: “I’m convinced taxes are going up because [the government] is spending too much on other people.”
Matthew Roberts, a 22-year-old painter and decorator, is also unbothered by the in-fighting: “I hope they win,” he said. “I like Nigel Farage.”
Bennett also said it had not put her off. “I mean, it’s the same with Labour,” she said, “with that Amesbury.”
Reform’s support is likely to be buoyed up by the fact that pensioners in particular are “very angry,” the source said, and “more elderly people are most likely to turn out in the byelection”.
“It’s an uphill battle,” they added, pointing to Amesbury’s sizeable majority. “It should be an expected Labour hold, but I think these are unprecedented times.”
Shore defended Labour’s record in government, saying the party had “hit the ground running, delivering an extra 2m NHS appointments earlier than promised, delivering security and dignity for working people, and raising the minimum wage for 12,000 people locally”.
“This is only happening because we have a Labour government and it’s a Labour government that’s only just getting started,” she said. “Now we need a strong, local voice for Runcorn and Helsby at the heart of government, to keep delivering the real change we need.”
The constituency is almost one of two halves, with Reform being Labour’s main opponent in Runcorn, to the north, but in the affluent Cheshire villages to the south, the Conservatives do better.
In some of the villages, the Greens also see success; Chris Copeman is a local councillor for Helsby, and has been confirmed as the party’s byelection candidate.
He hopes he may do well enough to push the Conservatives into fourth place on polling day.
“I think we could do fairly well in this election,” he said. “It’s difficult to know, maybe there could be a bit of a squeeze because people are really worried about Reform getting in.”
He would counter suggestions that progressive parties should step aside for Labour, saying: “You haven’t got some inherent right to rule the country, you have to prove to people that you’re good enough, and you’re going to be offering things and are going to do things that are what people want to see.”
In Helsby, voters are more sympathetic to Labour and conscious of the fact that the polls are pointing to the possibility of a Reform MP.
“I feel like I have to vote because I’m a woman,” Alice Linton, 28, said. “But I don’t really know who to vote for this time.” She is worried, she said, that Reform may win, and may consider voting Labour to try to stop that.
“It is tempting,” her brother, Charlie Linton, 25, who shares her concerns about Farage’s party, added.
“I wouldn’t be a Starmer fan,” Teresa Bergin, 69, said, adding that she has concerns about some of the government’s actions, including cuts to winter fuel allowance and personal independence payments (Pip), but said she would still vote Labour.
“I’ve got concerns about Reform full stop,” she said, “never mind Reform winning.”
