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Nottingham Forest’s 1-0 win over Manchester City on Saturday was a statement. Nuno Espírito Santo’s side have claimed some impressive results at the City Ground this season. They beat Aston Villa and Tottenham at home in December; they smashed Brighton 7-0 last month; and they have taken points off Liverpool and Arsenal. Yet victory over the defending champions in a battle for a Champions League finish spoke volumes. It was Forest’s first home win against City since Jason Lee bagged a brace and Steve Stone added a third in a 3-0 victory in September 1995. It was a win a long time in the making.
Importantly, though, the result wasn’t a huge shock. Forest beat the drop by just six points last season, albeit with a four-point deduction, but they are now third in the table and on course to qualify for the Champions League. They are four points clear of fifth-placed City, with sixth-placed Newcastle a further point back. It feels more likely than not that Forest will return to Europe’s elite club competition for the first time in 45 years, particularly with fifth place in the Premier League likely to be enough to guarantee Champions League football. The last time the club played in the European Cup, in 1980, they were the reigning champions.
There are still 10 games to play, so Nuno will not be dreaming about European nights under the lights just yet. Brighton, Aston Villa and Bournemouth are also knocking on the door, although they are inconsistent. Villa’s run in the Champions League may prove a distraction for Unai Emery’s side. And Brighton and Bournemouth have also endured their fair share of injury concerns this season, which may hold them back. Forest, by comparison, have remained relatively injury free, and that’s been vital as Nuno implements his regimented gameplan.
Forest’s success this season is challenging the idea that possession is king in the modern game. Manchester City lead this metric in the Premier League, with 60.9%; league leaders Liverpool have a little less of the ball (57.2%), and second-placed Arsenal are also willing to sacrifice possession (56.5%). Forest, meanwhile, have the lowest possession (39.4%) in the Premier League this season. They had just 30.9% of the ball against City on Saturday, yet had more shots on target and picked up the three points. When asked what pleased him the most in the game, it’s not wonder Nuno replied: “The organisation, the resilience.”
“Forest are a throwback, in a way,” said the former Manchester United defender Rio Ferdinand while on punditry duties for TNT Sport. “A lot of teams play the Pep way, where things are manufactured from the back, but Forest go directly to Chris Wood as quickly as they can.” Indeed, 14.7% of Forest’s passes this season have been long balls. They also make the fewest short passes in the league; just 287 a game, compared to 568 by Manchester City.
Forest transition from defence to attack quickly, using Wood’s skill as a traditional, battering-ram of a No 9. He isn’t as involved as some strikers in the league; he remains as close to goal as possible rather than drifting across the frontline and opening up space for teammates. Staying central is certainly working for Wood; he has taken 51 shots in the league this season (just the 26th highest in the league) yet is the fourth-top scorer in the division with 18. Cole Palmer has taken twice as many shots as Wood (102) but has only scored 14 goals.
Forest’s nippy wingers, Anthony Elanga and Callum Hudson-Odoi, stretch defences, with Morgan Gibbs-White conducting the team from a little further back. The wingers do not cut inside and go for goal themselves as often as wide players such as Mohamed Salah, Bukayo Saka or Son Heung-min, but rather they get to the byline and cross the ball or use their pace to hit opponents on the counterattack. Forest are fourth for shots after a counterattack (34) in the division. It’s no wonder just 24% of their attacks come through the middle, the lowest in the top flight, with the onus on the wide pair to wreak havoc.
Off the ball they are extremely difficult to break down. Not only have they conceded the third fewest goals in the league (33 in 28 matches), but they rank top for clearances a game (29.1). No player has made more clearances in the league than their centre-back Murillo (6.4 a game), with summer signing Nikola Milenkovic not too far behind him (4.9 a game). The duo have a knack for being in the right place at the right time, with their proactive approach vital in their ability to see out games. Nine of Forest’s 15 league victories this season have been by a single goal.
Their organisation in defence and efficiency in attack has taken them within sight of the Champions League. A huge slump is unlikely, especially when you consider that eight of their 10 remaining games are against sides in the bottom half of the table. They still have to play Villa and Chelsea, but meetings with relegation candidates Ipswich and Leicester, combined with games against dysfunctional pair Manchester United and Tottenham – who may prioritise the Europa League depending on their results this week – suggest that a top-four, or top-five, finish is well within their grasp.
After a relegation scrap last season, a Champions League push was seemingly beyond supporters’ wildest dreams. But they are on the brink of seeing that dream becoming a reality.
This is an article by WhoScored
