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The Premier League is almost certain to have a fifth team in the Champions League next season, with the distinct possibility of a sixth too, after the completion of last-16 ties in European competition.
Progress for Arsenal, Aston Villa, Manchester United, Tottenham and Chelsea, combined with the exit of Roma from the Europa League, means England are overwhelming favourites to claim one of two European performance spots (EPS) for Uefa’s elite competition next season.
Uefa officials believe England are almost home and dry in the race for an extra spot, which is awarded based on performance in the association club coefficient, which aggregates the performance of a nation’s teams in European competition over the course of a season.
The coefficient is calculated by awarding teams in European competition points for winning or drawing, and bonus points for qualifying from one round to the next. Scores are then averaged out according to the number of teams from a given country that started the season in Europe.
The coefficient table has England scoring the most points this season, ahead of Spain and Italy. With the top two nations earning the EPS, England must effectively stay clear of Italy to confirm a spot. England have five teams left in competition. Italy have fallen to three, with Inter, Lazio and Fiorentina progressing.
Roma’s defeat by Athletic Club could prove crucial because not only will Italy have fewer clubs to earn points, any that are accumulated will still be divided by eight for the purposes of the coefficient. This is the case because Italy won an EPS slot for the Champions League last year. Only seven English teams started the season in Europe, meaning each point they score from here on in will count for more.
If Manchester United or Spurs win the Europa League they would also enter the Champions League in 2025-26. This would mean six English teams in the Champions League, a first for any country in the competition. It would also likely mean any coefficient points would be divided by nine next season, making repeating the feat in 2026 that little bit harder.
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England would have seven Champions League teams if the country gets an EPS, United or Spurs win the Europa League and Aston Villa win the Champions League but finish outside the top five.
