Six Nations judgment day has enough riding on it to be an all-time classic

The best Six Nations campaigns tick two crucial boxes. The first is a consistent sense of jeopardy from start to finish and the second is a level of entertainment that elevates the tournament into the mainstream consciousness. When both occur simultaneously, as they have done this year, the championship’s final round ranks among the most gripping days in modern team sport.

This particular “Super Saturday” certainly has all the necessary spicy ingredients, starting with the prospect of France’s second title since 2010 if they can beat Scotland in Paris. A bonus-point win for England over Wales in Cardiff, though, could yet be enough to sneak the trophy in the event of a breathless Scotland win. Which, from a Scottish perspective, looms as the ultimate catch-22 scenario.

Ireland, too, are still just about in contention but will need to win well in Italy and hope both France and England subsequently underperform to nip in and claim a third consecutive title. With Wales also desperate to sidestep a 17th consecutive Test defeat and a second successive Six Nations wooden spoon, there is even more of a “Judgment Day” feel to the triple-header of fixtures than normal.

If the evidence so far this year is any guide, not everything will go entirely to plan. France are now being hailed as the best thing since sliced croissants but didn’t they just lose to a previously hangdog England last month? Shouldn’t Scotland have beaten England at Twickenham? Scotland’s record against France under Gregor Townsend is also pretty decent, with five wins in 12 meetings during his coaching tenure.

And since when did the sight of a white jersey and a red rose not stir the blood in a pre-match Welsh dressing room? To be in Wales this week has also been to detect some fresh belief under their impressive interim coach Matt Sherratt. Even without Maro Itoje conducting his pre-game media address in the Roald Dahl suite at England’s Cardiff hotel the potential always exists for a few tales of the unexpected.

On top of everything else the tournament is also about to see the creation of a record. A mere seven more tries will make the 2025 championship the highest-scoring in history, eclipsing the current record aggregate of 91 set in 2023. France, should they manage four tries against Scotland, will also beat England’s longstanding record of 29 tries in a single Six Nations tournament, set way back in 2001.

That statistic alone marks this French side out as something special, such has been the improvement in defensive organisation over the past two decades. The new law requiring a drop-out from under the posts when teams are held up over the line also makes it harder for sides to grind their way to success. France, give or take their damp slip-up in London, have had to demonstrate both power and panache.

It should now be enough to secure them the crown, at least based on the evidence of their 73-24 dismissal of Italy and their subsequent 42-27 demolition of Ireland. If the youthful TGV that is Louis Bielle-Biarrey doesn’t get you – and he has already equalled the Six Nations individual try-scoring record – then the similarly rapid Damian Penaud probably will.

Townsend, who used to play at Castres alongside the current Toulouse coach, Ugo Mola, has been suitably respectful in the buildup, suggesting their hosts’ performances in this Six Nations “have been the best I’ve seen from a French team”. That said, eight of Scotland’s 23 this weekend featured in the final rescheduled game of the 2021 championship when the visitors registered their first win in Paris since 1999 and the last two contests between the sides have been nip-and-tuck affairs.

Matt Sherratt takes charge of Wales as interim coach for the last time before returning to his regular duties with Cardiff. Photograph: Nigel French/PA

It could become even more intriguing depending on afternoon events in Dublin and the subsequent tea-time narrative beneath the roof in Cardiff. Steve Borthwick’s England side have had a strange old campaign in some ways and the final instalment will dictate whether their season is remembered primarily for its blossoming promise or its mixed messages.

England’s recent record on final weekends is also poor, with just three away wins – two of them in Rome – since 2003. In that time they have also famously had their travails in Cardiff, most notably in 2013 when Wales beat them 30-3. Remember that old line about even the grimmest of Welsh seasons being instantly salvaged by a win over England? It is suddenly back in circulation.

Sherratt, as it happens, grew up in an Anglo-Welsh household in Gloucester and very much knows his red-and-white history. “The one at Wembley [in 1999] was huge, wasn’t it? When Scott Gibbs scored. In the 70s I was probably wearing red a little bit more. Then come the 90s and early 2000s my dad’s voice probably took over the house a little bit more. He’s going to the game this weekend and I’ve managed to change him [from England to Wales] I think. I don’t know how long for, but definitely for this weekend.”

There will be no divided loyalties, though, for Sherratt himself – “I’ve got so much familiarity with a lot of the Welsh players … I’m more interested in that than what country I was born in” – and he will be celebrating as hard as anyone. “I’m going back to Cardiff as head coach on Monday … if we beat England I’ll probably be in on Friday” – should the final day yield a Welsh win for the ages.

In that event the likeable caretaker would be instantly hailed as a great redeemer and become a strong candidate to take over permanently but, while an attack coach role may yet materialise, he remains adamant he is not in the running for the head coach’s seat despite his squad’s upturn in mood.

“My instinct is that it needs someone fresh to come in. I’ve [only] been a head coach for 18 months … I’ve always been pretty self-aware in terms of my development and I feel I need a bit more time in the saddle as a head coach at club level.”

For those preparing to take the field for the final round this weekend, though, there is no time like the present.

British & Irish Lions places are still up for grabs and so, too, are one or two coaching futures. The bookmakers rightly have France as odds-on favourites for the title with England at 8-1 and Ireland out at 20-1 but the most memorable Six Nations seasons always contain a twist in the tale.