Stamp duty deadline and economic gloom dampen UK housing market

Momentum in the UK housing market slowed in February as confidence was dampened by a looming stamp duty deadline and concerns over stubbornly high interest rates and the world economic picture.

Buyer demand fell to its weakest level since November 2023, with approximately 14% of property professionals reporting a fall in demand, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics).

A Rics survey of professionals indicated that higher stamp duty costs for some homebuyers from 1 April are expected to weaken market activity. Stamp duty applies in England and Northern Ireland.

Concerns over interest rates, inflation and global events such as tariff trade wars also appeared to be dampening buyer confidence, the report said.

According to the Halifax, the typical property price dipped by 0.1% in February to £298,602, having hit a record high in January when the average price rose by 0.7% to £299,138. However, an early measure from Nationwide found the average UK house price rose by 0.4% during February despite signs of a sluggish economy, up from 0.1% the month before. The average price of a house bought through Britain’s biggest building society grew to £270,493.

The Rics survey also pointed to the volume of newly agreed sales falling in February, with London-based professionals reporting a particularly noticeable dip in sales agreed during the month.

While the market is expected to continue to soften in the short term, over the next 12 months house prices are expected to rise broadly in line with price expectations recorded over the past six months, the report said, with approximately 47% of property professionals expecting to see an increase.

In the rental sector, there was a small decline in demand from tenants for the fourth month in a row, marking the longest period without an increase since Rics began monthly lettings records in 2012.

Sarah Coles, the head of personal finance at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “The window of opportunity has [been] effectively slammed shut on buyers, because even in February they knew there was next to no chance of getting a sale sorted before the end of the stamp duty holiday.

“Unsurprisingly, it has sucked some of the life out of the market. New buyers and sales have both dropped – with new buyers at their lowest ebb since the end of 2023. House prices have continued to rise, but not as quickly, and agents are fairly convinced we’ll be in this lull for a while yet.”

Coles added that a “savings and resilience barometer” from Hargreaves Lansdown had found that “younger renters in particular are struggling and, on average, generation Z and millennial renters have just £73 left at the end of the month”.

Tom Bill, the head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, said: “Markets still expect two Bank of England rate cuts in 2025 and we still believe there will be single-digit house price growth, but some caution is understandable.”