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Labour is under no illusion that this Thursday’s local elections are going to be difficult for the government.
Nigel Farage’s Reform is on course to take hundreds of council seats and is ahead in the race for two mayoralties. Keir Starmer has not even campaigned in the Runcorn and Helsby byelection, such is the expectation of defeat.
“The opening image of this set of elections was a Labour MP punching a swing voter in the face,” one party insider admitted. “Of course it’s going to be tough.”
While much of the focus will inevitably be on how the Conservatives fare against Reform – with Kemi Badenoch’s team prepared for a brutal night – there is much anxiety in the Labour ranks about how to handle the threat from Farage.
Some Labour MPs worry that No 10’s total focus on maintaining support among voters tempted by Reform means their party is in danger of lurching too far to the right on issues like immigration.
They fear this could turn off more progressive voters who see legal migration as essential to economic growth and cultural enrichment, and recognise that much irregular migration comes from a place of desperation.
A YouGov poll last week suggested that while 8% of those who voted Labour last year would now vote Reform, double that had shifted to the Lib Dems or Greens.
But No 10 insiders are bullish, arguing that the day after the general election, Starmer said immigration would be one of his three priorities – along with the cost of living and the NHS – and that all their internal research shows that voters want the PM to get a grip on the issue.
“We’re not putting an undue focus on migration,” one source said. “Voters from across the spectrum are worried about it. There’s a very visible breach of our border security, and that’s before you get to asylum costs and community cohesion.
“We need to build public confidence in the government’s ability to control our borders. It is only by doing that that we get the space to talk about issues like youth visas or how we can respond to migration that arises from conflicts.”
But government officials do acknowledge that many voters conflate legal and irregular migration, which is why the Office for National Statistics’ upgrade of the Tories’ net migration figures to almost 1 million last year was so damaging to public trust.
“People are worried about both,” one official said. “Because small boats are such a visual and vivid phenomenon they end up being conflated with legal migration. On the doorstep, people don’t make a distinction between graduate visas and small boats.”
Small boat crossings remain a huge political problem for Labour and the Tories – a wound that Farage continues to punch. The number of people who have crossed the English Channel in small boats this year has exceeded 10,000, it emerged on Monday, an increase of about 40% compared with the same period last year.
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Government officials claim there are early signs that the UK’s attempts to tackle the issue are having an impact. Along with European allies, they say they have begun disrupting supply chains to make it harder for people-smugglers to get hold of boats in the first place.
Improved relations between Paris and London have also lead to the French reinstating a dedicated policing unit, the Compagnie de Marche, from this Thursday, to help tackle the gangs. French police are also expected to have legal backing to intercept boats in shallow waters within weeks.
There is also more work being done to shut down the hidden-market economy in the UK, which European allies argue is a major pull factor for economic migrants. There has been a 40% increase in illegal-working raids since the election.
The government has also said it will soon publish a white paper on how bringing down legal migration levels, with Home Office insiders insisting the plans have been under way since November, rather than being a kneejerk reaction to the rise of Reform.
“Our MPs are just going to have to deal with it,” said one government insider. “We promised we’d get to grips with immigration and we’re going to do our damnedest to do that. It’s not about countering Farage, it’s about delivering on our election promises.”
