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If there’s one thing the Labour party can agree on this week, it is that efforts by Keir Starmer’s allies to shore up his position backfired spectacularly.
By briefing journalists that he would face down any challenge and accusing Wes Streeting of leading an advanced plot to overthrow him, figures around the prime minister managed only to expose the weakness of his position.
The sharks were already circling – there is no shortage of senior Labour politicians convinced they can do a better job of running the country. And the botched briefing operation on Tuesday night was proof to many MPs that Starmer is leading an ineffectual No 10 operation careering towards a crushing defeat in Scotland, Wales and English local councils next May.
This impression solidified on Friday when Downing Street ripped up its carefully trailed plans to increase income tax in the budget – a move seen by others in government as the latest “panicked” attempt to protect Starmer’s position.
“MPs from a whole bunch of factions and camps, many once loyal, are all now talking with each other, they all think Keir is done, and are prepared to take risks together to get a more talented alternative,” one minister said. “Wherever it ends up, MPs’ resolve to get there in a coordinated way has only hardened.”
But even those in the parliamentary Labour party (PLP) who agree that removing Starmer is necessary are divided on who should replace him. Backbenchers say that overtures from would be candidates have stepped up ahead of the budget. “There have been a number of people jostling in the last six to eight weeks,” one said.
MPs believe this sense of haste has been sparked by fears the field may soon become more competitive. “My understanding is that Wes and potentially other contenders are terrified by the prospect that Andy Burnham will do a job swap with [Oldham MP] Jim McMahon and get back into the Commons in May,” a second Labour MP said. “They think the clock is ticking. They have all concluded that Keir is a bit fucked and if they don’t move fast, someone else will get it.”
A speedy contest would benefit the right of the party. The two most commonly cited candidates are Streeting and Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, who has been hosting regular dinners for MPs interested in home affairs issues. Streeting has long been seen by colleagues as No 10’s golden child, favoured by key players in Starmer’s operation including the chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney.
“Wes has had preferential treatment,” one former adviser to a rival cabinet minister said. “He has been given free rein to talk about issues beyond his brief that aren’t exactly party policy.” His allies have long insisted this is a function of his high-profile role in health and his communication skills.
Some senior Labour figures believe McSweeney has “gone off Wes” over the last year and that Mahmood would be his favoured successor were the prime minister to stand down.
The home secretary’s allies strongly deny she has formed any sort of alliance with McSweeney or indeed that she has his tacit support. “It’s both nonsense and a kiss of death,” one said. They say that while she and McSweeney were very close while she was heading the party’s campaign operation, that is no longer the case. Supporters of Mahmood are understood to be running a below-the-radar operation of their own to promote her chances.
Streeting, meanwhile, has notably tacked left in a number of areas including by speaking in favour of recognising Palestine in cabinet. He has endeared himself to the grassroots by calling for Angela Rayner’s return to government from the conference stage and saying Lucy Powell had been “vindicated” in calling for a culture change in No 10.
“He’s gone from being the really rightwing candidate to looking like the slightly fluffier, maybe he’s not that far from the soft left compared with the woman who hates the migrants,” one insider remarked.
The soft left of the PLP is leaderless following Rayner’s shock resignation over her tax affairs in September. But most MPs believe she would run if a contest happened after May, which would give her the space to rehabilitate herself politically. One who was recently contacted by someone canvassing support for her said she was “desperate to be back in the fort”.
Those close to Rayner deny she is running a campaign. “The problem is that people describe themselves as Angela’s allies and speak to MPs on her behalf, when she doesn’t even know about it,” one ally said. They suggested Rayner had been badly bruised by her family being dragged into the stamp duty row that led to her departure.
“The idea she’d want to be in the heart of the storm again right now is for the birds,” a second source said. “But if things kick off again after the May elections, then who knows.”
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There are long-running rumours that Rayner and Streeting could do a deal, on the basis that between them they could appeal to both the membership and wider public. Some on the soft left believe Rayner would need to appoint a serious, fiscally responsible chancellor to offer reassurance over the economy.
YouGov polling suggests that the net favourability ratings of everyone in cabinet are suffering from the government’s unpopularity. “When we last asked about Wes Streeting in July, he got a net score of -19,” said Patrick English, the director of political analytics at YouGov. “In September, Lucy Powell got -13, Bridget Phillipson got -15, Shabana Mahmood got -20, Yvette Cooper got -24 and Angela Rayner got -40.” Starmer’s most recent net score was -51.
But English added that for everyone but Starmer, there is a high degree of uncertainty. Half of voters said they did not know whether they were view of Streeting was favourable or unfavourable – and the figure was 71% for Phillipson, 62% for Mahmood, 43% for Cooper and 41% for Burnham.
Among Labour party members, who would have considerable power to choose the leader in any contest, YouGov’s polling in September suggested that Streeting would beat Mahmood by 45% to 24%. However, it suggested he would lose to Rayner by 31% to 55%.
The one Labour politician who comfortably defeated everyone else in a head-to-head among party members and had a net public favourability rating of +2 was Burnham. An ally confirmed the mayor of Greater Manchester was “minded to make a comeback”.
He would be entering a crowded field – it’s not just Streeting, Mahmood and Rayner who are said to have designs on the leadership. At least half a dozen more ministers are said to be on manoeuvres, if only because they want to play a role in the future of the party. They include Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, and John Healey, the defence secretary.
Neither Phillipson, the education secretary who narrowly lost the deputy leadership contest this month, nor Darren Jones, the chief secretary to the prime minister, denied having leadership ambitions in recent Guardian interviews.
The former transport secretary Louise Haigh and Lucy Powell, the newly elected deputy leader, are also mentioned by MPs on the soft left. There are even two ministers from the latest intake – Miatta Fahnbulleh and Al Carns – who colleagues believe might run.
“Things have advanced so far down the track already it’s not easy to see how No 10 can clamp down on it,” said one Labour MP who remains loyal to Starmer. “They need some bits of good news but they’re not going to get it – because the budget is coming.”
