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When the Canadian prime minister, Justin Trudeau, resigned in early January, after months of pressure to quit, the approval ratings of the progressive firebrand had dropped from their peak of 65% in September 2016 to 22%.
At the end of last year, the Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, described by many as “Trump Lite”, was the clear favourite to win Canada’s next general election, and the top pick of 45% of Canadians for prime minister. At the time, the three biggest issues for voters were all economic: reducing the cost of everyday items, inflation and interest rates, and access to affordable housing.
The first few weeks of Donald Trump’s second presidential term have changed some of that, at least for the time being. According to a new survey, “dealing with US president Trump” is now the most important issue influencing Canadian votes, ahead of the economy.
Canadian polls point to a remarkable political shift: Poilievre’s predicted landslide victory appears to have vanished into thin air. His party is still predicted to win, and is still polling above its 2019 and 2021 levels of support, but Poilievre’s perceived proximity to Maga politics has boosted the centre-left Liberals to only a few points behind the Conservatives.
“The tariffs imposed by Trump are reshaping our political landscape,” said Richard Nantel, a 65-year-old from Montreal, Quebec.
“A pro-Trump Conservative party was predicted to win the upcoming federal election. This party is now scrambling to save what was a sure win. It’s now less likely that the Conservatives will win the election.”
Scott Duncan, 54, a management consultant, said: “Since Trump began to threaten Canada with becoming the 51st state, the Canadians around me have become much more aligned politically.” Duncan is also from Quebec, the predominantly French-speaking province that has recently had a resurging separatist movement. “People like my mom’s partner, who were pro-Trump before, no longer are. I have been very surprised by the fierce Canadian nationalism displayed everywhere.”
“Those that boasted to support Trump – colleagues at work – have quieted down for the meantime,” said Nicholas Mickelsen, a 35-year-old structural firefighter from Edmonton, the capital of Alberta – a province that has long been considered a Conservative fortress, and where the newly minted prime minister, Mark Carney, grew up.
Nantel, Duncan and Mickelsen were among hundreds of Canadians who shared with the Guardian how they, those in their social circles and their communities had been grappling politically and privately with the US-Canadian trade war and political standoff.
Markets have been reacting with gradually rising panic to retaliatory tariffs and rhetoric between the two North American neighbours, with many Canadians now bracing for a recession and worrying about their jobs and investments.
Various people expressed growing concerns about China’s decision to impose harsh retaliatory tariffs on some Canadian farm and food imports last weekend, but despite these shock developments, the primary worry for many voters is now the US president.
“Family and friends who are more to the right and left have come to the centre to fight Trump,” said Andrea, 59, a teacher from Toronto.
Longtime Tories and leftwing New Democratic party (NDP) or Green voters in her social circle, Andrea said, had recently joined the Liberal party and were all planning to vote for Carney in the next general election.
“Trudeau’s legacy is looking very different now,” she said, pointing to the outgoing prime minister’s remarkable popularity comeback over the past few weeks.
Retired Fiona Mackey, 63, from Comox, British Columbia, had been planning to lend her support to the leftwing NDP, until Carney threw his hat in the ring.
“I signed up to the Liberal party to vote for Carney to replace Trudeau, as I felt he would be the best person to steer us in the right direction with tariff threats, Trump, world stability, and so on,” she said.
“A lot of Canadians haven’t yet heard of him, as he was ‘poached’ by the Bank of England. I like his views on the EU, and would be happy for Canada to join!”
Mackey was among many Canadians who said they felt Poilievre and his Conservatives had merely “cashed in on Trudeau’s unpopularity” and “would not stand up to Trump”.
“Anti-Trump sentiment”, she said, had united Canadians behind controversial politicians such as Doug Ford, the polarising, rightwing populist premier of Ontario who just won a third term after vowing to “fight against Donald Trump”. He was “universally very popular” now, Mackey felt, because he was “standing up to the US”.
“I guess it’s ‘in the moment’ politics, he’s stuck his neck out for Canada. My west coast friends who are NDP-leaning like him for what he’s doing for Canada at the moment.”
Katie, a mother of three from Ontario in her 40s, said that although there were still people sympathetic to Trump and his politics in her community, other voters seemed to be “rapidly returning to [their] comfort zone, which is a Liberal majority”.
A recording of Ford admitting to caucus and supporters that he had been a Trump supporter until the trade war began seemed to reflect a broader sentiment in Canadian society among rightwing voters, Katie added.
While many left-leaning Canadians who got in touch reported feeling relief that Trump had knocked some wind out of the Conservatives’ sails, various people pointed out that strong anti-Trump sentiment had allowed politicians to ignore other pressing issues and had helped beleaguered politicians with poor track records – such as Ford and Trudeau – regain popularity.
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“[Doug Ford] is taking an aggressive stance against Trump, and captured the focus of voters,” said Christina, in her 40s, a web design consultant from Ottawa. People had forgotten his cuts to education and a major property development scandal, she added.
Like scores of others, she felt Ford had ruthlessly pounced on the opportunity to call a regional election in a rare moment of collective shock and unity for personal gain, and many predict Carney may seek to similarly capitalise on the anti-Trump mood and call an early election.
While many shared renewed optimism about the Liberals’ chances of winning the election, others warned that many Canadians were still politically aligned with Trump’s overall vision.
Stephen McIntyre, a pensioner living on a low-population island in British Columbia, said he was dismayed about the “so-called Conservatives who share Maga values and find support”, while the “real Conservatives” had “lost their political voice long ago”.
“The threat of a Trump-sympathetic Conservative national government looms in the next election,” said Colin Martin, a university instructor from Calgary, Alberta.
“Alberta’s current government has more in common – functionally and ideologically – with Trump’s administration than with our own national government, which has created significant tension here.”
Alberta, home to most of Canada’s oil and gas production, is the country’s largest exporter to the US. According to a survey, 29% of Albertans would have voted for Trump, compared with 21% of Canadians. The Alberta premier, Danielle Smith, who accepted an invitation by Trump to Mar-a-Lago in January, has repeatedly cautioned against tariff retaliation, in sharp contrast with other Canadian leaders.
“Donald Trump’s comments about Canada becoming the 51st state have overnight created advocacy groups for merging with America,” said John Bourassa, 42, from Vancouver. “There are debates on where new electoral lines should be drawn, if Canada should be a territory or a state.”
Trevor*, a farmer from Saskatchewan who will be affected by the new 100% Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola oil, said the election of Trump had restored his faith in the wisdom of the average voter.
“Personally, I am in favour of joining the US but pretty sure that’s not a majority position. A common currency is much less controversial.
“I await the arrival of Poilievre as our new PM and his adoption of Trumpian policies to reduce waste in our government and other administration spending,” he said, hoping this would “help reduce the national overdraft”. “Mr Poilievre and the Conservatives will have a substantial majority in my constituency, I know nobody who will have changed their mind.”
Although tariffs could mean “a temporary financial hit”, he thought a long-term benefit was “entirely possible”.
Trevor was critical of “the ongoing belligerence on the part of Trudeau, Doug Ford and, of course, Carney” and feared that the markets, political opposition and “an almost wholly hostile press, worldwide” could totally derail Trump’s plans for the US and the west.
Poilievre, Trevor felt, should continue with his “already effective” criticism of Canadian housing costs and housing shortages, and “should not distance himself from Mr Trump” or “say anything to devalue his standing” with the US president.
While many respondents stressed that being proudly Canadian had been a sort of antithesis to Trump and the US for a long time, scores of people reported having fallen out with American family, friends and colleagues since Trump’s second term began, and feeling an unprecedented sense of hostility towards the US.
Kelly Ann Grimaldi, 39, from Welland, Ontario, said her family in Canada and Italy had stopped speaking with most of their US family members, because even those who did not support Trump could not understand why Canadians did not want to be American. “I look at America as our enemy,” she said.
“I find myself feeling a lot of anger at Americans I interact with, even though I understand that many of them will suffer much more than I will under this administration,” said Sarah, 26, a retail worker from Montreal. Assurances from Americans that they opposed Trump, she felt, were “self-serving” in the absence of action to support their Canadian neighbours.
Pamela, a middle-aged professional from Ontario, said she had not bothered to vote in the last general election, as she had felt things had been “working just fine in Canada”.
“This time, I definitely want to vote, on the issue of who will best deal with Donald Trump. I anticipate unprecedented turnout, since so many Canadians know that our nation and way of life are at stake.”
*Name has been changed
