Ukraine war briefing: Russia ‘on verge of recession’, Putin minister tells economic showcase

Vladimir Putin’s economy minister has warned that Russia is “on the verge” of recession as he spoke on the second day of a signature event meant to bolster economic confidence. The minister, Maxim Reshetnikov, said at the St Petersburg economic forum that his view was based on “current business sentiment and indicators” pointing to a slowdown. “Everything else depends on our decisions,” Reshetnikov said, calling for the central bank to show a “little love for the economy”.

Russia’s central bank raised interest rates to an eye-watering 21% in October 2024 to combat inflation and kept them at that level until this month when it eased them to 20%. Russia’s economic growth slowed to 1.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, the lowest quarterly figure in two years. Prices are rising across the economy driven up by massive government spending on the war and widespread labour shortages. Annual inflation has been more than double the central bank’s 4% target for over a year. Economists have warned since the war began that any Russian growth driven by the defence industry is unsustainable and does not reflect a real increase in productivity.

Kharkiv and Odesa were under attack from Russian-launched drones in the early hours of Friday, according to local officials and social media channels.

Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant “cannot start operating again as long as this large-scale war continues”, the UN nuclear agency has said. The plant, illegally held by the Russians, has too many issues with cooling water and its need for electricity supplied from offsite, the IAEA said.

Russia and Ukraine said on Thursday that they had completed another exchange of captured soldiers. Neither side said how many. “Our people are returning home from Russian captivity,” said Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president. The Ukrainian government agency overseeing the exchanges said it involved “seriously ill and wounded” soldiers. Russia’s defence ministry also confirmed the exchange.

Zelenskyy said on Thursday that Russia’s defence of Iran’s authorities underscored the need for intensified sanctions against Moscow. Its deployment of Iranian-designed Shahed drones and North Korean munitions was proof that Kyiv’s allies were applying insufficient pressure against the Kremlin. “When one of their accomplices loses their capability to export war, Russia is weakened and tries to interfere. This is so cynical and proves time and again that aggressive regimes cannot be allowed to unite and become partners.”

The Ukrainian foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, said the conflict between Israel and Iran had exposed Russian hypocrisy, with Moscow condemning strikes against Tehran while “ruthlessly” attacking Ukraine. “The only rational conclusion is that Russia cannot be trusted in any situation, and it is always part of the problem rather than the solution.”

The funeral has been held in Kyiv for Ukrainian soldier and former actor Yuriy Felipenko, who was killed on the frontline aged 32. Before joining the army in April 2024, Felipenko starred in several stage productions and TV shows, playing a lead role in Ukrainian crime serial The Colour of Passion.

Fighting between Iran and Israel could deflect global attention from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and even bolster the Kremlin’s war effort, a senior Ukrainian political source told AFP. The conflict has pushed up the price of oil and “for Ukraine, the challenge is the price of oil, because if prices remain high for a long time, the Russians will earn more”. However, Kyiv has welcomed Israeli attacks on a country that has directly aided and provided weapons to Russia.

Denmark when it takes over the presidency of the European Council will continue preparing Ukraine for EU membership against the objections of Hungary, the Danish Europe minister, Marie Bjerre, said on Thursday. The Danish presidency begins on 1 July. “Unfortunately, Hungary is blocking and we are trying to put as much pressure there as we can and also do everything we can to make Ukraine continue with the necessary reform work,” said Bjerre.