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The streets of Cardiff on Saturday night made the last days of the Roman empire look positively sedate. There were almost as many puddles of sick outside the Queens Vaults pub as England had scored tries inside the Principality Stadium, the glossy veneer of “Super Saturday” replaced by the dejected, what-just-happened stagger home. Truth be told, the pissed-up paying public weren’t looking too flash either.
What a deeply sobering weekend to be a player in red. To lose 68-14 against anyone at Test level is a nightmare; to do so under the roof at home against England is full-on zombie apocalypse stuff. An Aussie dollar or two, then, for Andy Farrell’s thoughts as he left the ground pondering his options for the British & Irish Lions series against the Wallabies this year. As things stand, representatives from Wales will be hard pressed to fill a phone box.
Farrell’s attention will also have been drawn to Ireland’s uncomfortable final afternoon in Rome. Instead of a positive reaction to their disappointment against France in Dublin there was further evidence to support the theory that a great Irish side is no longer the same force. Given Farrell is the man in charge of that longer term rebuild he suddenly has plenty to consider.
Because many of the certainties upon which his Lions plans were supposedly based have melted away faster than an ice-cream in the outback. Is it really still wise to base the tour’s foundations around a fading Irish side in increasing need of a reboot? Is Caelan Doris still his captaincy frontrunner? To what extent should England’s improving end to the Six Nations influence what he does next?
To steal afresh from Sherlock Holmes, the most relevant clue to emerge from the 2025 Six Nations was what did not happen. Ireland did not secure their hoped for third title in a row, Scotland still flattered mostly to deceive, and Wales’s new coach bounce ended up resembling the dead cat variety. A classy French side winning the title does not spell inevitable problems for the Lions but it does put the onus on Farrell to sift the evidence carefully and draw some blunt conclusions.
The good news is there is still some time with which to play. The Lions party is not scheduled to be unveiled until 8 May which allows, potentially, for three intense rounds of Champions Cup games against top French opposition to sort the wheat from the chaff. Plus, Leinster’s last-16 tie at home against Harlequins in early April: Marcus Smith against Sam Prendergast will be a fascinating duel on every level.
Because, at some stage, there will be no ducking the signature calls that will define Farrell’s selection. Finn Russell is theoretically the main man at fly‑half, but is he absolutely the head coach’s idea of a perfect 10? Another nagging little doubt will surface when the latter reviews the game in Paris on Saturday night: Scotland were only 16-13 down in the early stages of the second half with the game in the balance when Russell accelerated right and cleverly identified potential space on the inside; he flicked a funky little reverse offload towards the supporting Darcy Graham but (aargh!) the ball failed to go to hand. France instantly accepted the gift and, seconds later, it led to a momentum-turning score for Louis Bielle-Biarrey at the other end.
It remains an occupational hazard with the gifted Russell. It is certainly not a play that Owen Farrell, say, would have tried. On the flipside, Scotland’s backline has been as slick as anyone’s and it would be perverse not to pick their conductor along with many of the orchestra. The howls of outrage should Russell be omitted will not just originate from north of the border.
Either way, Farrell Sr also has to trust his own eyes and acknowledge the transformative tactical effect Fin Smith has had on England since his promotion to the starting XV. Even three weeks ago Smith would have been down the pecking order, below the precocious Prendergast. Suddenly it would feel like a massive oversight if the young Englishman does not tour and a slightly controversial punt if the coltish Irish fly-half is preferred.
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So where does that leave the increasingly versatile Marcus Smith, not to mention Farrell Jr, who will shortly be back in action at Racing 92? Imagine the furore if the former is omitted in favour of the head coach’s son, regardless of the latter’s current Test exile. A better bet, surely, would be to pick Russell plus both Smiths and place Owen on standby, in the knowledge the former England captain could fit in seamlessly at short notice if required.
Wales’s capitulation, though, has come at an unfortunate moment for Tomos Williams, Taulupe Faletau, Dafydd Jenkins and Nicky Smith, all of whom have been in Lions contention. Even Dewi Lake may now be struggling to hold off Luke Cowan-Dickie and Jamie George as Dan Sheehan’s understudies, leaving Jac Morgan as potentially the dragonhood’s solitary representative.
It could even be that England now provide more 2025 Lions than Ireland, particularly if the fast rising Ben Curry travels alongside his brother Tom at the expense of Josh van der Flier or Scotland’s Rory Darge, among others. In that event do the scales start to tip towards Maro Itoje as captain, particularly as he is already a distinguished Test Lion?
Decisions, decisions. As Farrell will be keenly aware, picking a Lions squad with a vibrant, fascinating Six Nations season still warm to the touch risks falling prey to emotion and recency bias. But amid the post-match carnage and sticky pavements of Cardiff on Saturday night it was impossible not to consider another red jersey and the additional numbers from the team in white set to fill it.
