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Volodymyr Zelenskyy is to head to the White House for a crucial meeting with Donald Trump, with the possible supply of US Tomahawk cruise missiles expected to top the agenda.
The US president has repeatedly hinted in recent weeks that he may deliver Tomahawks, which would give Kyiv its longest-range weapon yet that would be capable of striking Moscow with accurate, destructive munitions.
“If this war doesn’t get settled, I may send Tomahawks,” Trump told reporters on Sunday. “A Tomahawk is an incredible weapon. And Russia does not need that. If the war is not settled, we may do it. We may not. But we may do it.”
The missile has a range of up to 1,500 miles.
Trump, fresh from brokering a peace deal in Gaza, has signalled he is eager to build on the momentum of that diplomatic victory by increasing pressure on Moscow to end Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, now in its fourth year.
On the eve of Zelenskyy’s visit, Trump said he was planning to meet Putin in the Hungarian capital, Budapest, on a date still to be determined in an effort to end the war. They previously met in Alaska in August, which did not produce a diplomatic breakthrough.
The announcement of another Trump-Putin summit followed a phone call with the Russian president. “I believe great progress was made,” Trump said on social media of the call.
In the past, Trump has set deadlines for Moscow and vowed to impose crippling sanctions on Russia’s economy, only to back down. He has frequently softened his stance after speaking to or meeting Putin.
While supplying Tomahawks, the idea of which has already annoyed the Kremlin, would be symbolically significant, they are only available in relatively small numbers, estimated by some experts at 20 to 50 missiles.
Twice over the weekend, Trump and Zelenskyy spoke by phone in what the Ukrainian president described as “productive” talks – a stunning reversal from February’s White House dressing-down that had laid bare the rift between the two leaders.
“He [Zelenskyy] would like to have Tomahawks,” Trump said on Tuesday. We have a lot of Tomahawks.”
Tomahawks were first used in combat in 1991 and are normally launched from ships and submarines, which Ukraine does not have. They cost an estimated $1.3m (£1m) each and have a range that puts Moscow well within reach, as well as offering far greater destructive power than long-range drones.
There is also a relatively new land-launched variant, the Typhon, more obviously suitable for Ukraine, but the launchers are in short supply. The US army is known only to have two, although another launcher, the X-Mav, which is considered more mobile than the Typhon, was demonstrated this week.
Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said: “My understanding is that US doesn’t have a lot of Tomahawks. There are launchers that can launch them from the ground, but the military doesn’t have many of them.”
Pavel Luzin, an independent Russian military analyst, said: “The Typhon system itself is new, still being produced for the US military. And it’s not just a launcher – it includes transport and reloading vehicles as well as a dedicated command post.”
In recent weeks, the Trump administration also authorised the sharing of US intelligence to help Ukraine carry out precision strikes on Russia’s oil refineries using domestically produced drones and US-supplied Atacms missiles. These attacks have led to fuel shortages and a sharp rise in gasoline prices across Russia.
Politicians and experts believe the cruise missiles could reinforce that strategy, though the missiles are generally considered most effective if launched in salvos, which would be difficult with limited numbers.
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On Tuesday, Radek Sikorski, the Polish foreign minister, argued they could be particularly effective because Russia’s size makes air defence coverage difficult. The Institute for the Study of War estimates that there are 1,900 Russian military targets within range of the longer 1,500-mile plus Tomahawk variant.
The key question, however, is whether Trump is dangling the prospect of supplying Tomahawks to pressure Putin, while remaining unwilling to take a step that could bring the US closer to direct confrontation with a leader he still calls a “close friend”.
The Kremlin hassaid Ukraine’s reliance on Washington for training, logistics and targeting intelligence to operate Tomahawks would draw the US into the war on a scale not seen before, undoing the progress Moscow claims to have made with the Trump administration.
Some in Moscow said the Kremlin saw Trump’s talk of Tomahawks as little more than a negotiating gambit to pressure Putin – a move they said was unlikely to faze the Russian president.
“Russia sees it as bluff from a bullshit artist in chief … the threat is not credible as there are no practical ways to do it in meaningful numbers. Russia will shrug it off,” said Vladimir Frolov, a former Russian diplomat.
Still, the Kremlin has in recent days issued its strongest warnings to Trump since he assumed office – a striking shift in tone for Moscow, where many had expected Washington to help secure a Ukraine settlement favourable towards Russia.
Putin last week warned the US against supplying Tomahawks, saying their transfer would mark a “qualitatively new stage of escalation”.
On Thursday, the Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov struck a similar note, telling the state-run Radio Mayak that the delivery of the cruise missiles to Ukraine “could lead to a qualitatively new level of escalation in the conflict”, adding: “It would be a very serious new step in that direction.”
A former senior Russian defence official said Moscow was less worried about the impact of Tomahawks on the battlefield than about what delivery of the weapons would symbolise.
“Moscow doesn’t believe Tomahawks will dramatically change the situation on the ground,” they said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
“But it would be the clearest sign yet that Putin is losing Trump – and that is deeply concerning for them. Their delivery would cross a red line, after which Trump could feel emboldened to expand US arms supplies to Ukraine.”
