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England is heading towards a drought this summer unless there is significant rainfall soon, as reservoir water levels dwindle.
The government will on Wednesday convene the National Drought Group of water companies, farming groups and other experts to prepare for what is expected to be a dry summer with potential water shortages.
Scotland has already sounded the alarm over drought in the coming months, issuing an “early warning” of water scarcity in April.
No reservoirs have been built in England for more than 30 years, which leaves the country particularly vulnerable to drought. Reservoir levels are lower than they should be after parts of the country had their driest spring on record, and if the dry weather continues as predicted there may be water shortages leading to hosepipe bans and potentially other forms of rationing.
To avert a drought, there would need to be rainfall at levels last seen in 2012, when record-breaking deluges caused floods across the country, according to the Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management.
A spokesperson for CIWEM said: “Rainfall totals across much of the British Isles have been low since the start of 2025. This has reduced the amount of recharge and refill possible in groundwater and reservoir resources over the 2024-25 winter, and left water resources below the levels companies would like to see at the start of the spring/summer seasons. The data shows that at present 2025 rainfall is similar to levels last seen in drought events of the last 20 years. It suggests that sustained rainfall, such as that last seen in 2012, would be required to remove the threat of drought this year.”
However, long-term forecasts suggest the conditions are ripe for very warm and dry months ahead. April was the sunniest since records began, with a mean temperature of 9.6C (49.3F) for the UK, 1.7C above average, making it the third warmest April for mean temperature since the series began in 1884. The UK received just over 56% of the rainfall it would usually expect in April and the Thames area has particularly suffered this spring, getting just 13% of the average rainfall.
Several water companies are undertaking work on reservoir repair, including Thames Water, which often faces significant pressure during droughts due to the density of the population it serves in London and the Thames Valley.
As the UK’s drought preparations come under greater scrutiny, the much-anticipated water industry inquiry, the Cunliffe review, is expected to look at fresh powers to force water companies to collaborate on sharing water stores, industry sources said. This will become an ever more pressing issue as the Environment Agency reduces or imposes tighter conditions on water abstraction licences, which allow companies to take water from rivers to manage supplies.
This forced collaboration would probably trigger spats between companies over costs and licence conditions, the industry sources added. They believe water companies will cite drought-specific needs as justification for higher consumer bills.
Climate breakdown means hot, dry spells and droughts will become more likely. The Met Office scientist Emily Carlisle said: “Met Office UK climate projections indicate that hot spells will become more frequent in our future climate, particularly over the south-east of the UK, with temperatures projected to rise in all seasons.”
Reservoir levels are falling concerningly early for this time of year, and would need sustained rainfall to recharge. The UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (UKCEH) warned that reservoirs were 10% less full than they should be: “A continuation of the dry conditions in the north and west, particularly this early in the year, would cause concern regarding water resources over coming months.” United Utilities has particularly low reservoir levels. The regional total is at 71% of capacity, and Haweswater reservoir is already depleted to 62.3%. At this time of year, they are usually up to 98% full.
When water supplies run low, companies rely on abstraction from local rivers. However, river flows are far below average for the time of year, with almost every river catchment in the UK well below normal. Some areas had the lowest October to March flows since records for those places began in 1958, according to UKCEH.
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Dr Chris White, a reader in engineering for extremes, and head of the Centre for Water, Environment, Sustainability and Public Health at the University of Strathclyde, said the low river flows and reservoir levels were clear indicators of the problem and warned hosepipe bans were likely. “Our water resource infrastructure is generally designed for average conditions, but in a warming climate, what is ‘normal’ is an open question. Our water resource infrastructure is not really designed for extremes – both water scarcity and floods – which means we need to rethink how we store, manage and use water better to cope with the full range of events.”
A spokesperson for the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs confirmed the government expected water companies to activate their drought plans, which include rationing measures, should the dry weather continue. “After years of failure, this government has inherited a crumbling water system which population growth and climate change is putting a tremendous strain on. It’s why a record £104bn of private sector investment has been secured to upgrade and build new infrastructure, including nine new reservoirs to secure our future water supply into the decades to come.”
A Thames Water spokesperson urged people to play their part in reducing water use and said: “Over the next five years we will deliver a record amount of investment to address our infrastructure. Any planned upgrades across any of our reservoirs are being overseen accordingly to minimise risk to operations.
“Our water resources are in a healthy place ahead of this summer, as rainfall was above average through the winter months. Of note, our reservoir levels are at 94%. Groundwater levels also remain above average for this time of year for most of the areas in which we operate.”
A United Utilities spokesperson said: “While it has been the driest start to the year in 90 years, we continue to plan our operations for all weather conditions to manage supply and demand.
“Whatever the weather, we always encourage our customers to use water wisely. That way, we can all play our part to make sure there’s enough water for people, wildlife and the environment.”
