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The election of Friedrich Merz as chancellor by German legislators on Tuesday morning was meant to end months of political instability, since the collapse of Olaf Scholz’s government half a year ago – itself the result of bitter infighting at the top. Many fear that this could be the last chance to keep out the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). But the humiliating result of the first ballot – in which Mr Merz became the first chancellor designate to fail to secure the majority needed in the Bundestag since the second world war – was a bad beginning.
It was supposed to be a straightforward confirmation; instead, he was hobbled by rebels from his own coalition. Only 310 of its 328 legislators backed him, short of the 316 required. He was approved by 325 in a hastily scheduled second vote, hours later.
Yet while it was a bombshell, the first vote only laid bare the fundamental problem. The alliance between Mr Merz’s conservatives and the Social Democrats may be known as a grand coalition, but it is in practice a very modest one – and he has no realistic alternatives should it fall apart.
The AfD’s leader, Alice Weidel, made no attempt to hide her glee at the debacle in the Bundestag, calling for a snap election. Her ethno-nationalist party, now formally declared as extremist by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency, came second in February’s snap election, gaining one in five votes. It has since risen to first place in some polls.
The concern is of a toxic cycle emerging. As support for parties in the centre diminishes, they are forced to draw together – strengthening the perception that they form a single blob which mutes any new endeavour addressing the real needs of ordinary voters, and instead horsetrades its way towards unsatisfactory compromises. That in turn could whittle support further, with voters concluding that rightwing political extremism offers the only real prospect for change. No one would suggest this is unique to Germany, but the AfD’s surge makes it especially dangerous, and the nation’s history makes it especially chilling.
A political system built for stability has entered an unpredictable new age. Mr Merz’s domestic struggles are intensified by the storm blowing in across the Atlantic. The Trump administration is openly egging on the AfD and undermining the government. US tariffs threaten a struggling economy. The disintegration of US security guarantees loom over the continent.
That context ensured that Mr Merz’s eventual swearing-in was received with undisguised relief elsewhere in Europe too. The best-case scenario is that Tuesday’s shock forces a recalibration by both the new chancellor and members of his coalition. Resolving their discontent will require empathy, subtlety and deftness that he has yet to show.
His strident rhetoric yet political flexibility has often made him look brazen rather than pragmatic. His decision to scrap borrowing restrictions, allowing defence spending to rise, was necessary but arrived as a screeching U-turn, which angered members of his own Christian Democratic Union. Relying on AfD votes to push through a resolution on border security was a grave error that broke the postwar taboo against working with the far right. Few will feel that he is the ideal leader for this perilous moment – as his dismal poll ratings demonstrate. But with so much at stake, Germany cannot afford for its new chancellor to fail.
