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The extraordinary briefing war that erupted at the top of government on Tuesday night has reignited questions about Keir Starmer’s leadership.
Speaking to the Guardian and others, Starmer’s most senior political aides warned that he would fight any “reckless” attempt to challenge him after the budget or May elections, while voicing fears that Wes Streeting, the health secretary, was among those manoeuvring to replace him.
Instead of putting to bed any questions about his future, the briefing has sparked fresh questions about Starmer’s future and thrown the spotlight on Streeting as a potential successor. Here we look at the rules for removing a Labour leader and the possible consequences.
What would the mechanism for removing the Labour prime minister be?
A Labour leadership contest can be triggered if 20% of the party’s MPs throw their weight behind a replacement candidate. Given there are 405 Labour MPs, 81 would need to support a challenger. The threshold was increased from 10% in 2021.
Starmer would automatically be on the ballot paper in any contest, and his closest allies have made it clear that he would fight any attempt to dislodge him.
Labour members and affiliates, including the trade unions, would be able to vote in the ballot. The timing of any contest would be decided by Labour’s national executive committee (NEC).
Has it ever happened before?
No Labour prime minister has been ousted by his party, nor has any faced a formal leadership challenge from MPs.
Tony Blair and Gordon Brown survived waves of ministerial resignations designed to force them out of Downing Street. Blair was destabilised in 2006 by the departures of several of Brown’s allies from the frontbench, but did not leave office until a year later. Brown endured a series of resignations but clung on until 2010.
Jeremy Corbyn is the only Labour leader to have faced a formal challenge under the modern party rules. A mass shadow cabinet resignation took place after the Leave campaign unexpectedly won the Brexit referendum in 2016, and Corbyn then lost a confidence vote among his MPs by a huge margin.
He was challenged for the leadership by Owen Smith, the then Labour MP for Pontypridd, but comfortably won a vote among members and unions and ultimately emerged in a stronger position than before.
How likely is Starmer to see off any challenge?
Most Labour MPs believe that Starmer would see off a challenge, although they say the decision to force the question out into the open this week has actually weakened his position.
Starmer told the Commons on Wednesday that he had “never authorised attacks on cabinet members” after Streeting told broadcasters that “whoever did this doesn’t speak for the prime minister”. But this suggests that Starmer is unaware of and uninvolved in what goes on inside Downing Street.
Nonetheless, the obstacles for any challenger to Starmer are formidable – winning over 81 MPs would be a major feat and anyone who did so would have their popularity damaged by moving against a majority-winning Labour prime minister. The party’s membership would not appreciate the disloyalty and would be likely to be sympathetic towards Starmer in this scenario.
There are suggestions that a low-profile “stalking horse” candidate could be found to trigger the formal challenge and then clear the way for one or more serious candidates on the ballot. This would require some difficult political manoeuvring and many people would see though an attempt to disguise the instigator of an attempted coup.
Who are the potential candidates to replace Starmer?
Starmer’s allies have singled out Streeting as someone they fear is moving against him, with claims there are 50 frontbenchers willing to resign and throw their weight behind him. Streeting categorically denied any plot on Wednesday morning and said those behind the attacks on him should be sacked.
Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, is also seen as a prospective leadership candidate and is favoured by Labour MPs on the right of the party. Angela Rayner, who remains popular with the grassroots despite being forced to resign over her tax affairs, could re-emerge as a candidate or play a kingmaker role. Ed Miliband, a former Labour leader, is tipped by some for a return.
Outside the parliamentary party, Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, harbours longstanding ambitions to be leader but would need to find a Commons seat first.
