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For most of the postwar period, the state of Baden-Württemberg was both a bastion of German conservatism and – as the home of Mercedes-Benz and Porsche – an economic powerhouse. But in volatile times, even regions that embodied political stability and industrial prowess now deliver the unexpected. A come-from-behind victory for the Greens last Sunday, in the first of a series of important regional elections this year, suggests that Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrat-led national government is alienating voters in the same way as other centrist administrations in Europe. If Sir Keir Starmer has Gorton and Denton to anguish over, Mr Merz and his Social Democrat coalition partners now have Baden-Württemberg.
Caveats apply. The Greens already had an impressive power base in Germany’s third-largest state, where they have been the senior partner in coalition administrations for 15 years. In Cem Özdemir, their victorious candidate, they also fielded a charismatic and popular campaigner. Mr Özdemir’s personal achievement is in itself a cause for celebration. The son of immigrants who arrived in the country in the 1960s, he becomes Germany’s first state premier with Turkish roots.
But wider polarising trends were also at work. A substantial CDU lead ahead of the poll evaporated and the Social Democrats were almost wiped out, recording their worst election result since the second world war. By ominous contrast, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) scored close to 20% – the party’s best ever result outside its eastern heartlands.
The explanation lies in a contest dominated by crises that are eroding support for mainstream parties across the continent. Prolonged post-crash stagnation and an underfunded green transition has allowed the far right to combine anti-immigrant rhetoric with a focus on economic insecurity. For voters fearful of Chinese competition and large-scale job losses in the car industry, images of the AfD’s national leader, Alice Weidel, campaigning outside a Mercedes-Benz factory near Stuttgart struck a nerve.
Significantly, Mr Özdemir met this challenge head-on, foregrounding the economic opportunities unleashed by a confident green agenda. As he told one broadcaster: “If you unite climate action and the economy, you can find a lot of support.” His victory showcased the potential of a pragmatic programme focused on gamechanging climate investment and improving the quality and delivery of public goods, from rail networks to social housing.
Sadly, that is a lesson unlikely to be learned in Berlin. Since taking office, Mr Merz has sought to see off the far-right threat by adopting ever more draconian positions on immigration. On the economy, he has increasingly resorted to hectoring Germans over the need to work harder to increase productivity. AfD rhetoric in Baden-Württemberg focused instead on a broken model in which “the promise that anyone who works hard will eventually own their own house or apartment … no longer exists”.
In her victory speech after the Gorton and Denton byelection, where Labour was humiliated and the Conservatives lost their deposit, the Green party’s Hannah Spencer addressed the same sense of disillusionment from a progressive perspective. After years of stagnation and rising inequality, the traditional heavyweight parties of European politics are confronting a crisis of trust and failing to connect with exasperated voters. Ms Spencer, and now Mr Özdemir, have demonstrated that it need not be the far right that profits from their failures.
