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Voters in Tuesday’s primary elections across the US chose candidates who could flip critical districts in the US House and Senate in November, setting up a series of high-stakes general election contests in a midterm year expected to favor Democrats.
Among the most watched races are: a New Jersey Democrat who could oust a Republican incumbent absent with a mystery medical issue for months; several Iowa Democrats hoping to flip their red-leaning state; and California’s redrawn maps that have given Democrats an advantage in the heavily blue state.
Other major contests, including the California governor’s race, remained up in the air as of Tuesday night. In Los Angeles, Democratic mayor Karen Bass claimed one of two spots to advance to the November general election, while her opponents, according to the Associated Press, as her rivals remained locked in a tight battle.
The results, stretching from California to New Jersey, underlined many of the forces shaping the 2026 midterms: Democrats’ desire for change in the wake of the party’s devastating losses to Donald Trump in 2024, the president’s enduring grip on Republican voters despite his falling approval ratings and voters’ sour view of the US economy.
The night’s victories were not a tale of progressive insurgents or moderates winning the day, but a mix of both designed to appeal to voters in different places, from deep-blue districts to red states where Democrats hope to over-perform after a stretch of unexpected victories in special elections since Trump retook the White House.
Democratic targets begin to take shape
Some of the most crucial races to flip are now set for November, with massive spending expected in contests seen as toss-ups, but even in those rated to lean toward Republicans given the national headwinds against the party in power.
In New Jersey, Democrats nominated former healthcare executive and US navy veteran Rebecca Bennett after a crowded primary to take on Republican congressman Tom Kean Jr, who ran unopposed, in a suburban swing district that Trump carried narrowly last year. The race took on a renewed importance in recent months, as constituents – and colleagues – question his whereabouts amid a mysterious three-month absence from Congress.
In Iowa, where Democrats are expected to spend big, rematches were set in districts that two years ago produced some of the closest House races in the country. And a more moderate challenger running on a “prairie populism” message gave Democrats hope they could win the US Senate seat that is open after incumbent Joni Ernst decided not to run.
Josh Turek, who represents a Trump-friendly legislative district in the state legislature beat out state senator Zach Wahls, who was running a more anti-establishment campaign, and will face former broadcaster Ashley Hinson this fall.
After Turek’s win, Cook Political Report moved the race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican”, noting that Turek’s life story (he was born with spina bifida from his father’s exposure to Agent Orange in Vietnam, uses a wheelchair and is a Paralymic gold medalist) and moderate appeal could grab voters in a dismal environment for Republicans.
In a statement after his win, Turek said: “I will be a real fighter for Iowans, the middle class and our working families. So from now until November, I welcome all Iowans – Democrats, Republicans, and Independents alike – to join our team.”
In the state’s House contests, Republicans re-nominated US representatives Mariannette Miller-Meeks of the first district and Zach Nunn of the third district – both vulnerable to Democratic ousting, and tests of whether they can rebuild support among working-class voters.
Former state Representative Christina Bohannan, who came within 800 votes of defeating Miller-Meeks, secured the Democratic nomination. Nunn and his Democratic opponent, state senator Sarah Trone Garriott, were both running unopposed for their parties’ nominations.
Governor races shape up
Gubernatorial elections, especially important in an era of Washington gridlock, saw Democrats solidify their chances in one state and increase their potential in another, while a Republican incumbent was barely hanging on.
In California, early results showed a tight race for governor, led by Demcorat Xavier Becerra, a former Biden administration official, and Republican Steve Hilton, the British-born former Fox News personality endorsed by Trump. The billionaire Tom Steyer, running as a progressive, trailed in third place, according to preliminary results.
Meanwhile, in Los Angeles the former reality TV star, Spencer Pratt, and a progressive city council member, Nithya Raman were locked in a tight battle for the chance to face Bass in November. Under California’s nonpartisan primary system, the top two vote-getters advance regardless of party.
In Iowa, Democrats also see Rob Sand, a state auditor who has positioned himself as both a populist and moderate, as a ticket to winning the governorship after Republican Kim Reynolds’ retirement.
In South Dakota, the Republican contest for governor was headed to a runoff, with businessman Toby Doeden advancing while the incumbent governor Larry Rhoden, who replaced Kristi Noem when she joined the Trump administration, battles for the second spot.
And in New Mexico, former interior secretary Deb Haaland secured the Democratic nomination for governor. She is likely to win the general in the blue-leaning state and would become the country’s first female Native American governor.
Test of new maps in California
This year a highly political redistricting war upended an already polarized political environment, with states rushing to draw new districts to favor their parties.
Trump has pushed for redrawn congressional maps in several Republican-led states to protect the party’s razor-thin House majority. A supreme court ruling that severely weakened the voting rights act, paving the way for several southern states to try to reconfigure their maps.
Tuesday’s primary tested a decision by Californians to retaliate, creating new lines that would potentially help Democrats gain five seats in response to the GOP’s effort in Texas.
The internal fights animating the Democratic party – on ideology, economic populism, how to take on Trump and whether Israel committed a genocide in Gaza – featured into several races.
Scott Wiener, a Democratic state senator known for championing housing and LGBTQ+ legislation, won the widely coveted seat to succeed former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who is retiring at the end of her term,. It was still unclear whether he would face Connie Chan, a San Francisco supervisor endorsed by Pelosi, or Saikat Chakrabarti, a former tech executive who served as congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s first chief of staff.
Republican inroads
As Democrats look to capitalize on Trump’s low approval rating, some Republican contests could have them on the back foot.
In New Mexico, Republican Greg Cunningham faced no formal opposition in the primary race to take on Congressman Gabe Vasquez, a Democrat. The seat is one of only 13 congressional districts that voted for Trump in 2024 while sending a Democrat to the House. On Tuesday, the DCCC called Cunningham “another rubber stamp for an extreme agenda that’s crushing New Mexico” while Vasquez was a “trusted leader”.
In Montana, a red state that had a Democratic senator until 2024, Republicans rallied around Aaron Flint, Trump’s choice to succeed Representative Ryan Zinke in the state’s lone Congressional district. While election prognosticators rate the race as “likely Republican,” Democrats sense an opportunity, propelled by Trump’s cratering popularity.
Flint, a talk radio host who previously worked as a staffer in Zinke’s congressional office, was endorsed by Zinke, the president, Republican senator Tim Sheehy, and the state’s governor Greg Gianforte. The Democratic field included former gubernatorial candidate Ryan Busse and union organizer Sam Forstag, though the race has not been called as of Tuesday night.
And Kurt Alme rose to the top of the Republican field in the race for Montana’s open Senate seat, though he will face a strong challenge from independent Seth Bodnar in November. Outside spending in the Democratic primary by Republicans sought to boost a Democrat who would split votes away from Bodnar. It’s unclear if the Democratic primary winner, Alani Bankhead, would drop out to clear the way for a two-way contest, as the Democratic contender in Nebraska is set to do for a similar dynamic there.
In South Dakota, with Dusty Johnson running for governor, state attorney general Marty Jackley won the Republican primary in the race to replaceJohnson,. With Trump’s endorsement, Jackley overcame his Republican opponent James Bialota for the nomination, leaving him well-positioned to become the reliably Republican state’s lone representative in Congress.
It was a night with greater implications for the direction of both parties, and one that might point to some of issues voters are grappling with since 2024.
In New Jersey’s 12th congressional district, Adam Hamawy, a plastic surgeon and army veteran who traveled on a medical mission in Gaza in 2024, rose from political obscurity to clinch the nomination in the race to succeed retiring congresswoman Bonnie Watson Coleman.
A progressive who is vocal about his criticism of Israel, Hamawy’s victory over nearly a dozen Democratic challengers in the safely blue seat means he is likely to win the general election in November, becoming the first Muslim lawmaker to represent the state nationally.
