3 days ago
20
The political world abhors a vacuum of intrigue and gossip. The scuppering of Andy Burnham’s return to Westminster has therefore brought renewed attention to other potential successors to Keir Starmer. That is in turn likely to involve renewed scrutiny of Angela Rayner.
Starmer’s former number two and housing secretary has been quietly loyal since she resigned as a minister nearly five months ago after what she said was the inadvertent underpayment of stamp duty on a flat in Hove.
Rayner has resurfaced on occasions to try to nudge policy in areas she views as her legacies, notably by holding ministerial feet to the fire on workers’ rights legislation, and through some lobbying on the just-announced changes to the leasehold system.
It is no secret that she would like a return to cabinet, and equally that Starmer would welcome this – not least because the prime minister has said so publicly more than once.
While a slightly unlikely duo, they remain in touch and on good terms, according to senior Downing Street sources, and there is a shared view that they are an effective political team, despite some residual mistrust on Rayner’s side about some of those around the PM.
It will, nonetheless, not happen immediately, and for two reasons. The most obvious is that there is currently no vacancy, and after Starmer reshuffled his cabinet so thoroughly in the wake of Rayner’s departure, he is unlikely to create one soon, with the earliest date mooted so far being after May’s Scottish, Welsh and local English elections.
There is also the matter of an ongoing investigation into Rayner’s tax underpayment by HMRC, which could result in a fine, a reprimand or no action at all.
None of the outcomes would be expected to block her return, but for now she simply has to wait for the tax authorities to respond – a source of deep frustration for Team Rayner.
This is, of course, only one half of the story. Allies of Rayner say that while she has no plans to openly challenge Starmer, if this were to happen or if he stepped down she would definitely compete for the top job.
She is understood to be frustrated at repeated reports linking her to being the deputy and left-leaning ideological ballast in a possible leadership bid by someone else, not least because these stories generally portray her as once again being second banana to a man.
“Angela says she took the scars for Jeremy Corbyn, she took the scars for Keir Starmer, and so the next time she takes the scars it will be for herself,” one senior Labour figure told the Guardian.
That said, Rayner is also known to be aware that she can be a divisive figure for some voters, and that any leadership bid would be firmly based on the idea of her leading a team, with a key role for a steady, understated chancellor – perhaps someone like John Healey or Pat McFadden.
With the bulk of her legislative priorities finishing their route through parliament, Rayner is thinking about what direction she would want to take Labour, with the broad conclusion that there would need to be a change in policy as well as in the person at the top.
Curious as it might sound to outsiders, one hiccup sometimes raised in relation to a Rayner candidacy is her partner.
He is Sam Tarry, a former Labour MP who was unceremoniously deselected before the last election in a process he views as deeply unfair and orchestrated by Wes Streeting.
Such internal Labour divisions run deep and bitter, and some observers worry that Rayner could suffer by association. For their part, Rayner’s team would prefer that she was granted more privacy – both over her relationship and, especially, her children.
In terms of who may back Rayner in a potential contest, she would hope to get support from the recently revived soft-left Tribune caucus, particularly among female MPs.
For now, however, the extent of her base remains unknown, and any path to the leadership deeply uncertain. What does seem sure is that if someone like Streeting hoped to engineer a coronation, they would instead have a battle on their hands.
