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Will he still be there to see in the next new year? Noise about Keir Starmer’s durability quietens with MPs being away from Westminster’s tearooms and murmuring corridors, but WhatsApps zing to and fro just as busily: should he stay or should he go?
Any party that has fallen so far, so fast would doubt its leader. At minus 54%, Starmer has been declared the “most unpopular PM ever”, a title also held at one time by each of his four predecessors. Given how little Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak and Starmer have in common, whoever comes next may join their “most despised” club in this time of anti-politician volatility.
Internally, Labour wrangles over what’s gained from changing the face at the top and what’s lost in political stability after the mad Tory years of No 10’s revolving door. Post-Brexit referendum, changing PMs four times in eight years all but destroyed the once “natural party of government”. With everything “unprecedented”, history is no guide, old party loyalties are dying and new parties are making extravagant promises.
In the Times, Fraser Nelson, the recent Spectator editor, discourages Labour from ditching its leader, warning it not to “hallucinate about miraculous powers of a fresh face”. A new PM would need a new mandate, he writes: “Without this, cabinet rifts become harder to control; backbenchers harder to tame. Things start to fall apart. Usually, such leaders end up calling an election either to seek a personal mandate (Theresa May) or put the party out of its agony (Sunak). Or just because he can no longer control parliament (James Callaghan).” But everyone cherrypicks from history, and this advice is not from a Labour well-wisher. Disingenuous counsel comes from the Sunday Times: “Labour still does not have a good reason to dump its elected prime minister.” Failure is a good reason.
Peter Kellner, pollster and analyst, chooses from history the example of John Major’s success. Replacing Margaret Thatcher in 1990 after she had sunk to her lowest, his ratings soared to 61% and he scored a fourth consecutive Tory victory in 1992. Major was remarkable only in his insignificance, but Thatcher’s unpopularity had become an albatross. That’s what Labour’s would-be defenestrators say of Starmer: voters on the doorstep detest him. The venom against a man who is serious and decent, with an impressive tally of good done, is a mystery to me. He might lack oratory and charisma, he might waver in direction – but after the prime ministers we have just suffered, this sinister detestation springs from a deeper fury against governments and ruling politicians. How long would a new leader’s bounce last?
However, if May’s elections return cataclysmic results, with backbench and cabinet in foment and no light on the horizon, Labour may do what it has never done. To avoid being the first formally ousted Labour PM, Starmer could with elegance and dignity stand down, saying: “I have done my best – time now for someone else.” That never happens, but we live in unprecedented times.
When it became undeniable that the 2010 election would be lost, Gordon Brown should have stood aside, enhancing his reputation. A self-effacing Starmer resignation would make selecting the next leader a less damaging drama. The obvious candidates are good – Wes Streeting, Angela Rayner and Andy Burnham are all clever and practised – but they all have to prove what “change” means.
Don’t bother swapping leader for the optics and oracy. Labour MPs need a united reason why, with neither the dismal dirge of Blue Labour nor a fanciful Corbynite reprise. “Change” has to mean escape from the ill-conceived manifesto by openly declaring: “Since that was written, the world has changed beyond recognition: Donald Trump is president, tearing up alliances; Europe is at war; the global economy is threatened by a gigantic AI bubble; the far right is on the march.” Discard tax pledges that distort budget priorities. Abandon Brexit red lines, free us to get as close as Europe will agree. Bring in proportional representation immediately to rescue democracy for five-party politics. Cleanse donations from Westminster.
The government has been overwhelmed by lack of money, and that won’t change. Considering the Resolution Foundation’s grim assessment of its constrictions, a new leader has to say how they would do any better. What new bellows could ignite the embers of growth? Admit the magnitude of the problem with honesty to call out Nigel Farage and Green fantasy accounting. Tell us what government is for – it’s not just a matter of better words.
It may be impossible for Labour MPs to agree on either the person or the policies of a new leader. Putsch attempts against Brown failed due to strife over a successor. Cabinet resignations calling publicly for him to “stand aside”, several plots, a rebellious letter to all Labour MPs from two former cabinet ministers and a likely challenger disappearing in the crucial plotting hours made good stories: all Labour coverage became about possible assassination. That’s the risk of rumbling, indecisive insurrection.
If enough Labour MPs have the nerve, the plan, the organisation and the clarity of purpose, then “’twere well it were done quickly”. Why wait for certain election calamity in May? With no crystal ball, so far it looks to me by no means sure that enough of them will summon the mutual forbearance across factions to agree a new way forward. The measure of successful “change” would be raising Labour’s ratings, seeing off Farage and doing those most difficult things the country needs. If that doesn’t happen, Labour might look back on the achievements of the Starmer era and wonder why they did it.
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Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist
