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Plaid Cymru has won the Caerphilly byelection in south Wales, a dramatic result signalling a sharp realignment in Welsh politics with repercussions for the whole of Britain.
Rhun ap Iorwerth’s party, which wants Wales to become independent, seized the Senedd (Welsh parliament) constituency from Labour and resisted a fierce challenge from Reform UK.
Plaid candidate Lindsay Whittle received 15,961 votes, while Reform UK’s Llyr Powell won 12,113. Labour’s vote collapsed in what had been a stronghold, with its candidate Richard Tunnicliffe polling only 3,713 votes.
Plaid emerged with a majority of 3,848 votes, and a swing of almost 27% from Labour.
In his acceptance speech, Whittle asked people to remember the late Hefin David, whose sudden death led to the byelection. “He will be a hard act to follow. I will never fill his shoes but I promise I will walk the same path that he did.”
He continued: “Listen Cardiff and listen Westminster. This is Caerphilly. And we are telling you we want a better deal. Wales is at the dawn of a new leadership, a new beginning.”
Ap Iorwerth said the result meant his party was in the driving seat to take control of the Welsh government at next year’s Senedd elections.
He said: “There is deep, deep disillusionment with Labour, both on a UK level and at a Welsh government level, and the people are looking for new leadership. A Plaid Cymru win here tonight is the clearest evidence yet of who is in the driving seat to lead government for next year. I don’t think Reform have shown they are particularly interested in Wales. It’s all about getting [Reform leader] Nigel Farage to Downing Street.”
The result is a blow for Farage, who visited Caerphilly during the campaign. Reform’s Powell made no speech after the result was announced. Speaking to reporters later, he said: “We decimated Labour. It’s a massive gain for us here.”
Powell said Reform had learnt a lot about campaigning, which would be put to good use at next year’s full Senedd elections. “A big part of what we were trying to do here is to master our campaigning. We’ve trained so many people up on our systems. We’re now a grassroots campaigning party.”
Labour has dominated in Wales for a century but the party, which runs the Welsh government, now holds 29 of the 60 Senedd seats and the result makes it more difficult for it to pass its 2026-27 budget, which could leave the people of Wales facing cuts to public services.
What has happened in Caerphilly is also a huge blow for the UK Labour prime minister, Keir Starmer, as he tries to fight off the surge from Reform across Britain.
The Welsh first minister and Welsh Labour leader, Eluned Morgan, said: “Welsh Labour has heard the frustration on doorsteps in Caerphilly that the need to feel change in people’s lives has not been quick enough. We are listening, we are learning the lessons, and we will be come back stronger.”
The most senior Labour figure at the count, Huw Irranca-Davies, the deputy first minister of Wales, accepted that the party would have to think deeply about the result but struck a defiant tone.
He said: “Some people are now writing us off. I have to paraphrase Mark Twain, rumours about death are greatly exaggerated. There have been occasions before where Wales has lost seats that are deep red and on those occasions we’ve come back and we’ve bounced back having listened and come back with a compelling vision for people that is better than the doom and discord of people like Reform.”
Irranca-Davies accepted Labour needed to do “some really rapid reflection on the reasons” for its defeat.
He said: “I think we need to get back to focusing on those bread-and-butter issues, things such as cost of living, the money in people’s pockets, jobs and opportunities for young people.”
Irranca-Davies called on Plaid to talk to Labour about the budget. “It is really incumbent on some of those parties in the Senedd to come and talk to us about how we pass that budget.”
Immigration had grabbed headlines during the byelection. Migration is not a devolved issue, and only about 3% of the people in the area were not born in the UK, but Reform made much of a vow to end what it called Labour and Plaid’s “mass immigration agenda”.
However, the result suggests the people of Caerphilly may have been more concerned about issues that Labour in Wales does have control of, such as health and education.
It is possible Reform’s campaign was undermined by its former leader in Wales, Nathan Gill, admitting bribery charges relating to statements made in favour of Russia in the European parliament.
Polling for next year’s Senedd elections puts Plaid just ahead of Reform (30% to 29%) with Labour on 14% and the Conservatives on 11%.
Labour’s standing in Wales has dropped off a cliff since Vaughan Gething stepped down as first minister last year amid a donations scandal. Morgan has tried – but so far failed – to draw a line between Welsh Labour and the increasingly unpopular UK party.
