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The US-Israeli war on Iran, now into its seventh day, has set the Middle East alight, threatening millions of people’s lives and livelihoods as the violence spreads in widening arc stretching from central Asia to the edge of Europe.
The joint operation, named “Epic Fury” by the US and “Roaring Lion” by Israel, has been sold as a high-impact show of intimidating power, but its impact so far beyond the chaos and bloodshed is unclear. What is certain is that predictions that this type of war would destabilise the region have indeed rapidly materialised.
1. What is the background to this war?
For decades, the regional powerhouse Iran, which views Israel and the US as its arch-enemies, has sought to spread its influence across the Middle East by backing militant groups, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. It has developed a nuclear programme that it claims is for civil purposes. Washington disputes this and was in negotiations to limit Tehran’s nuclear ambitions up until last Saturday, when it abandoned them and started bombing.
Israel’s longstanding regional policy – particularly towards Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, Gaza, Yemen and Syria – has been to keep enemy forces “weak” through the regular use of overwhelming and destructive military power, including assassinations. The result has been the killing of tens of thousands of civilians, an abandonment of diplomacy and the hardening of global hatred against Israel. Senior figures in armed factions that Israel has killed are usually quickly replaced by deputies, while militant groups Israel has targeted have either rebuilt or been replaced by others.
The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has been urging the US to seriously consider an attack on Iran for years and dismissed international agreements to put limits on Tehran’s nuclear programme. Successive administrations in Washington have held back from this belligerent stance, with diplomats and Middle Eastern governments warning that – as well as being a blunt and ineffective tool to destroy a nuclear programme – a bombing campaign on Iran would engulf the region. This is exactly what is playing out now.
As Donald Trump has said, no other US president “was willing to do what I was willing to do”.
2. What are the objectives of Israel and the US in this war?
Various explanations have been given, including: combating generalised threats from Iran and its proxies; destroying Tehran’s nuclear programme (despite Trump claiming he had already “obliterated” it with strikes last summer); and an attempt at regime change by bombing it from the air. On Friday, Trump said he wanted an “unconditional surrender”.
Some in US Christian evangelical circles see the bombing as part of a holy war that will lead to Armageddon – something they crave as they believe it will precipitate the return of Jesus Christ.
Hours after the first strikes, Trump said the “objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime”. Netanyahu has said that removing Iran’s missile and nuclear threat was his objective, but that he also welcomed the “overthrow of the regime” if that is an outcome.
One striking goal that is starting to emerge is that the US and Israel have encouraged anti-government groups inside and outside Iran, including Kurdish militants, to rise up and fight. If successful, that strategy could lead to an unpredictable civil war.
3. What do we know about civilian casualties so far?
US and Israeli attacks have killed 1,230 people in Iran since the bombing began a week ago, according to the Iranian Red Crescent Society. One of the most shocking of the US and Israeli strikes was on a girls’ primary school in Minab, in southern Iran, which killed dozens of children.
A separate US submarine torpedo attack on an Iranian warship off the south coast of Sri Lanka killed at least 87 sailors, although Sri Lankan authorities were able to save some from drowning.
Israel’s strikes on Lebanon – a country it has repeatedly bombed and invaded over decades – have displaced hundreds of thousands of people. The Lebanese health ministry has reported Israeli strikes killing 217 people and wounding 798, and the government there has warned of a humanitarian disaster with huge numbers of peopled displaced.
Twelve Israelis have been killed by Iranian attacks, and six US personnel have been killed. There have also been casualties in the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait from Iranian drones and missiles. Other Iranian attacks have hit countries outside the region, including Azerbaijan and Cyprus.
4. Who is leading Iran now and what might come next?
On the first day of the war, the Iranian supreme leader, Ali Khamenei was killed. The regime immediately began working on a possible successor, with the dead ayatollah’s son Mojtaba, seen as a possible heir to the title. No new leader has been announced, although an interim body is running affairs.
So far, the government remains in control of the country’s armed forces and police. The big danger is a total state collapse, with regional powers fearing the big country could be fragmented.
Recent history shows US military operations that were initially celebrated as successes were later seen as failures, including the 2001 Afghanistan war and the 2003 Iraq war, which toppled the Taliban and President Saddam Hussein respectively, only to lead to years of war and power vacuums.
5. How long can Iran afford to fight back for?
Iran’s conventional military is not comparable to that of the US and Israel, and it has a limited supply of missiles and drones. But the state has a long history of using asymmetric warfare, in which outmatched forces can conduct painful attacks against big military powers through paramilitary groups.
In launching attacks into multiple neighbouring countries, Tehran’s retaliation has already created geopolitical and economic chaos. It has effectively closed the strait of Hormuz, which has choked global oil supplies, and its missiles and drones have cut world air travel.
6. Will the Gulf states remain neutral?
It is hard to tell. Tehran has repeatedly said that US military bases, of which there are many, and US “interests” in the region, are the targets of its attacks. Still, patience is running thin in the Gulf after hotels, high-rise apartment blocks, oil installations and airports were hit.
Several Gulf monarchies, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, view the Iranian regime as an adversary, but there is also concern that they could get dragged into a destructive war in which every side will suffer.
7. Is this war legal?
There is no shortage of voices saying this war is not legal – under international as well as US law – not least among legal scholars, but also US politicians and some of Washington’s allies abroad.
The US and Israel claim their strikes are an act of pre-emptive self-defence. The British prime minister, Keir Starmer, refused to join the offensive, stating he would not commit UK forces to “unlawful action” and warning that “this government does not believe in regime change from the skies”.
One of the most vociferous critics of the war, the Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has described the growing conflict in the Middle East as playing “Russian roulette with the destiny of millions”. On Friday, Sánchez again criticised the US-Israeli strikes, saying they were an “extraordinary mistake” and “not in accordance with international law”.
