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The intense focus on Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu’s war on Iran has meant scant attention paid to the Israeli war in Lebanon. Yet almost 1,100 people have now been killed there by strikes, according to the health ministry, and a fifth of the population has been displaced.
When Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel shortly after the attack on its patron Iran began, Israel responded with what it called “precise and targeted strikes”. But the offensive quickly escalated. On Tuesday the Israeli defence minister, Israel Katz, announced another occupation of Lebanon – describing a “defensive buffer” running up to the Litani river, about 30km north of the border, and by implication likely to be prolonged. That would be illegal in itself. Bezalel Smotrich, Israel’s far-right finance minister, has called for annexation outright.
Israel says it must protect communities in its north. The international court of justice ruled that self-defence did not justify occupying Gaza. Israel sees an opportunity to finally eliminate Hezbollah – isolated without Syrian support or help from Iran, and still recovering from the decapitation of its senior leadership by the Mossad in September 2024. Yet Hamas has endured through the devastation in Gaza. Hezbollah itself was born of the 1982-2000 Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon.
Despite anger in Lebanon at Hezbollah’s decision to fire on Israel, many analysts believe that another occupation would fuel support for the group rather than end it, with people even more reliant upon it for basic needs. The government has taken some steps to curb the group, though well short of the disarmament required under the last ceasefire agreement in 2024, and has expelled Iran’s ambassador. Its ability to do more is limited. Hezbollah’s power to hurt Israel has been drastically reduced; not so its power to punish others in Lebanon.
Mr Netanyahu, fighting an ongoing corruption case and determined to restore his political fortunes and legacy, appears to pursue eternal conflict. His far-right coalition partners have a maximalist vision of territorial conquest. Mr Katz said that Israel would demolish homes along the border as it did in Rafah and Beit Hanoun in Gaza – which were essentially flattened. As in Gaza, Israel has forced civilians to flee en masse, and hit bridges, water and sanitation infrastructure. Health workers and officials accuse Israel of deliberately targeting medical facilities. Human Rights Watch says that it is using white phosphorus.
Mr Trump’s war with Iran will be difficult to end, but its economic impact on US politics gives him a reason to try. It is hard to imagine his administration caring greatly for Lebanon at the best of times; still harder to imagine it brokering an end to the war. It has apparently asked Israel to spare Christian communities – surely a prescription for ethnic cleansing. France has been left to look for a way out.
The widespread failure to take meaningful action against Israel over its atrocities in Gaza, and reluctance even to criticise it more than tepidly, has emboldened Mr Netanyahu’s government and its rightwing supporters. The Israeli military has killed hundreds of Palestinians in Gaza since a ceasefire was announced. The humanitarian crisis continues to grip the territory. Israel’s western allies – including the UK – must apply real pressure, instead of being complicit in a grim future for Lebanon too.
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