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A former special forces colonel, government minister Al Carns was this week on manouevres warning that the UK needs to be preparing for war with Russia.
“The shadow of war is knocking on Europe’s door once more. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to deter it,” he said, in comments that go beyond previous warnings by his boss, the defence secretary, John Healey.
“Collectively, everybody – what is their role if we get caught in an existential crisis, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we mobilise the nation to support a military endeavour?”
It was stark language from the 45-year-old Scottish-born MP, who has had an exceptionally swift rise to his role of armed forces minister.
And inevitably for a politician with a background in the armed forces, there is speculation about whether he is future leadership material – as with, at various points, Dan Jarvis, Clive Lewis, Tom Tugendhat, James Cleverly and Penny Mordaunt before him.
This time, however, some Labour MPs think there could be a real prospect of Carns being a contender if and when the opportunity arises.
One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been involved in politics for longer than it seems, as a former military adviser to three defence secretaries: Mordaunt, Michael Fallon and Gavin Williamson.
But there is also the risk of being overhyped as a Labour politician with a backstory colleagues think will appeal to the public – without enough consideration of whether they have the experience and political instincts to make it to the top.
Carns was born in Aberdeen, and state educated, before enlisting in the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He rose through the ranks and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “in recognition of gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan during the period 1 October 2010 to 31 March 2011”.
It came as a surprise when he resigned from the armed forces after 24 years of service to run as a Labour MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, shortly before he was due to be promoted to brigadier.
And in a sign he was immediately earmarked as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a junior veterans minister straight after the 2024 election. He was promoted in September this year to the more senior role with a portfolio covering all the military.
Chiselled and confident, Carns has been an occasional media performer for the government, and has been an effective political attack dog when putting pressure on Reform over Russia after the conviction of its former politician Nathan Gill for accepting bribes.
He has also found time to break a world record this year along with former military colleagues by climbing Mount Everest in under five days without acclimatising on the mountain, aided by xenon gas.
His name entered the conversation as a possible future leader in earnest around the time of the deputy contest in September, when his supporters began canvassing colleagues about a run for the job. That failed to get off the ground, with No 10 firmly backing Bridget Phillipson and more critical MPs coalescing around Lucy Powell.
Since then, profiles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with the Mail on Sunday several weeks ago presenting him as the “Action Man” Downing Street was trying to prevent from ousting the prime minister.
While some Labour MPs think he could be leadership material, others think he is making himself appear too ambitious when there is no vacancy in No 10. There is also a wariness about the rapid rise of a high flyer from outside politics after Keir Starmer’s ascent.
“There’s no evidence that being senior in the military translates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” says one Labour MP. “He is completely untested.”
