Geert Wilders failed in government, but the far right retains its grip on the Netherlands | Cas Mudde

On Wednesday Dutch people go to the ballot box … again! This will be the ninth election for the Tweede Kamer (second chamber), the Dutch parliament’s legislative chamber, in this still young century. In some ways the Netherlands has become the Italy of the 21st century, plagued by political fragmentation, governmental instability, and radicalisation (accompanied, increasingly often, by violence).

This election is a direct result of this fragmentation and instability. The far-right Freedom Party (PVV) led by Geert Wilders dominated the last ruling coalition, but still pulled the plug in July, after less than a year. The various lessons that the Dutch media, political parties, and voters have drawn from this tumultuous experience should be relevant beyond the Netherlands, given that most European countries are struggling with a similar challenge: how to deal with the increasing electoral, ideological and political success of the far right.

Like everyone else, the Dutch media was taken by surprise that Wilders let “his government” fall and have tried to make sense of it. Compared to 2002, when an even more chaotic coalition fell after just 12 weeks, there is a lot less debate about whether the far right should have a role in Dutch politics – almost as if it has become impossible to imagine a Dutch future without it.

This is not surprising, as most Dutch media remain a (largely voluntary) hostage of the far right. The man himself barely graces the media with appearances or interviews, yet Wilders has been the most discussed politician on Dutch television. And in his physical absence, the media have given Joost Eerdmans, leader of the radical right JA21 party, disproportionate prominence, while a tactical leadership change in the extreme-right Forum for Democracy (FVD), where Lidewij de Vos has succeeded Thierry Baudet, did exactly what it was intended to do, by returning the party to the spotlight.

Dutch political parties have mostly helped to normalise and rationalise the far right. Some rightwing parties have ruled out future coalition agreements with Wilders and the PVV: not because of Wilders’ anti-constitutional ideology but for his “immature” and “irresponsible” behaviour. In fact, rightwing parties continued to pass far-right policies in parliament after Wilders left the coalition. These included the “strictest asylum policy ever”, a (stricter) burqa ban and even an “antifa ban” – strikingly, the latter a proposal of the FVD, the only far-right party that is supposed to be excluded from power by a cordon sanitaire (fire wall), at least nationally.

Even “centrist” politicians continue to normalise the far right. Rob Jetten has moved his socially liberal D66 party to the right on issues such as culture and immigration, embracing a kind of communitarian patriotism, and does not rule out governing with the radical right JA21 or the radicalised farmers’ party, BBB. Frans Timmermans, leader of the centre-left GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), has sharpened the party’s immigration policies, spoken of a “refugee problem”, and appeared on the far right’s favourite TV programme, Vandaag Inside – ironically, to the chagrin of many of the programme’s loyal viewers.

But as always, voters still seem to prefer the original to the growing number of far-right copycats. Although Wilders’ PVV has lost some support, roughly 4% down on the last election result, it is clearly the most popular party in the country.

• Cas Mudde is the Stanley Wade Shelton UGAF professor of international affairs at the University of Georgia, and author of The Far Right Today