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Greens welcome defection of three councillors to party from Labour in London

Zack Polanski, the Green party leader, has welcomed the defection of three councillors to the party from Labour on Barking and Dagenham council. He says:

This is huge. 3 more London councillors leave Labour and join @TheGreenParty.

We’re now on more councils than the Lib Dems in London.

Labour - you’re next.

Danny Kruger 'profoundly wrong' about Tory party being over, Mel Stride claims

Mel Stride, the shadow chancellor, told the Today programme this morning that Danny Kruger was “profoundly wrong” to say the Conservative Party was “over” when he defected to Reform UK.

Asked Kruger’s comments, Stride said:

Well, he’s profoundly wrong, Nick. I’m sorry to see Danny go, but his analysis is wrong.

We don’t have an election now for another four years.

It is certainly the case that we had a devastating defeat about a year ago, that we lost that connection with the electorate, that trust with the electorate, and it is also true that it will take us time to rebuild that.

Stride said his party was now holding the government “ruthlessly” to account, which formed part of rebuilding trust between the Conservatives and the public.

Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, welcoming the US treasury secretary Scott Bessent to 11 Downing Street this morning. Photograph: Simon Walker/HM Treasury

Met police say they expect to arrest 50 more people following disorder at Tommy Robinson rally

Vikram Dodd is the Guardian’s crime correspondent.

Police expect to arrest 50 more people following Saturday’s large far-right-led march through London, the commissioner of the Metropolitan police said this morning.

Over 100,000 people took part in the event led by the far-right activist known as Tommy Robinson.

So far 24 people were arrested on the day and on Monday police issued appeals to find 11 more people in connection with alleged violent disorder, after officers were attacked and attempts made to break through barriers.

This morning Sir Mark Rowley, commissioner of the Met, said: “I anticipate we will be arresting about 50 more people for violent disorder.”

Rowley told a meeting of the London policing board, which oversees the Met, that detectives are working through CCTV to find further suspects alleged to have been behind violence.

Maria Caulfield becomes latest former Tory MP to defect to Reform UK

Maria Caulfield, a former Tory health minister, has joined Reform UK, GB News reports. They say she is the 13th former Tory MP to switch, GB News says.

Caulfield told the broadcaster:

If you are Conservative right-minded, then the future is Reform. The country is going to change a lot. The same people who thought that Brexit would not happen think that Reform will not happen. They are in for a shock.

GB News says the other former Tory MPs who are now Reform UK members are: Lee Anderson, Nadine Dorries, Sir Jake Berry, Adam Holloway, Anne Marie Morris, David Jones, Marco Longhi, Ross Thomson, Andrea Jenkyns, Aidan Burley, Alan Amos and Henry Smith. Their list does not include Danny Kruger, the only MP elected as a Tory at the last election to defect. He signed up with Nigel Farage yesterday.

New leftwing party being set up by Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana to hold conference in November, it says

Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s new political party will hold its founding conference in November, with delegates chosen by lottery, PA Media reports. PA says:

In an email to supporters, the party said it would open membership applications by the end of September, ahead of the conference two months later.

But it did not give precise dates for the conference, saying only that it would see “thousands” of delegates “chosen by lottery to ensure a fair balance of gender, region and background”.

Ahead of that conference, the party said it would hold “regional assemblies” where members can “listen to each other, break bread and debate” founding documents.

It will also hold a vote on the party’s name in October, replacing its current temporary title of “Your Party”.

The announcement represents a step forward in what has been at times a confused launch Mr Corbyn’s latest movement.

The launch of a new party was originally announced by Coventry South MP Zarah Sultana, who announced in July she was quitting the Labour party to co-found the new venture with Corbyn.

But Corbyn appeared unready for the announcement, making no public statement on the launch until the next day.

Since then, according to Sultana, 750,000 people have expressed an interest in the new party.

Corbyn and Sultana will appear at The World Transformed in Manchester on October 10 to discuss their new party.

The event previously took place alongside the annual Labour party conference, but has now moved to place discussion of the new party “centre-stage”.

New “eco-populist” Green Party leader Zack Polanski will also attend.

The launch process for “Your Party” has not run smoothly. Sienna Rodgers recently published a very good long read on how the new party is being set up, and the factionalism involved.

Extract from 'Your Party' email to supporters Photograph: Your Party

On Saturday the Guardian published a long read report by Pippa Crerar and Jessica Elgot on the views of Labour MPs about Keir Starmer. They found there is some serious talk of trying to replace him, although no guarantee that this plotting will get anywhere.

Bloomberg has published the results of a similar exercise by Alex Wickham. He summarises his findings here. Like the Guardian, he has found a lot of unhappiness, but no certainty that a replacement candidate is viable.

Here is an extract from Wickham’s summary.

— Many MPs who spoke to Bloomberg think talk of replacing Starmer is premature. But they also said the left and remarkably a lot of the soft left are seriously trying to take him out.

— The problem for the plotters is the lack of viable replacement:

— Andy Burnham: MPs don’t see an easy route to Westminster. Rayner / Gwynne seen as unlikely to step aside. And would he beat Reform in a by-election now? A lot of scepticism about him among MPs too.

Keir Starmer, centre, with Charlotte Hennessy, left, Sue Roberts, second left, Margaret Aspinall, second right, and Steve Kelly, right, at 10 Downing Street. They are some of the relatives who have been campaigning for the Hillsborough law – the public office (accountablity) bill – being published today. Photograph: Leon Neal/AP

Google announces £5bn AI investment in UK before Trump visit

Google has said it will invest £5bn in the UK in the next two years to help meet growing demand for artificial intelligence services, in a boost for the government, PA Media reports.

Lucy Powell has clear lead over Bridget Phillipson in Labour's deputy leadership contest, poll of members suggests

Back to the Survation polling of Labour members, and it includes responses to various questions about the Labour deputy leadership. They all suggest Lucy Powell, the former leader of the Commons, should beat Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary.

Asked who they intended to vote for, 47% say Powell, 30% say Phillipson, and 23% are undecided.

Poll of Labour members Photograph: Survation

Of those members who are undecided, Survation found that, when pressed, 59% said they were leaning towards backing Powell, and 41% Phillipson.

Amongst people likely to vote, with undecided voters squeezed, Powell is on 61%, and Phillipson 39%.

Last week, at a point when there were five candidates running to be Labour’s deputy leader, Phillipson had a clear lead over Powell in favourability rankings when members were asked in a Survation poll if various people would be a good or bad candidate for deputy leader. Survation asked about 19 potential candidates.

Today’s figures are so different that it would be easy to assume one set of results were wrong. But last week there were no confirmed candidates. Now there are two, and the parameters of the contest have been set. Phillipson is the pro-Starmer candidate, and that means Powell (by default, as well as in part by intention) becomes the anti-Starmer candidate. That explains the shift.

In commentary on the poll, Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation quotes the views of one Labour member responding to the poll to explain this dynamic.

Among those members who have a favourable view of Keir Starmer, Phillipson leads Powell 55/21, however among members who have an unfavourable view of Starmer, Powell leads Phillipson 64/14 - and unfortunately for Phillipson - that’s a larger group of members.

One member summed up this sentiment when given the opportunity to comment. He had voted for Starmer in the 2020 contest was now “quite unfavourable” about Keir Starmer and summed it up by saying: ‘The leadership needs to be made aware how unhappy the members are with the direction of government and how it’s functioning. I like Bridget Phillipson and think she would make a great deputy leader. But as she is seen to be the leadership candidate I cannot support her in this contest.’

State pension set to rise by more than £500 a year from April, figures suggest

People on the new full state pension are set for a rise of over £500 a year from next April following the latest official earnings data, PA Media reports. PA says:

Under the triple lock guarantee, the state pension increases every April in line with whichever is the highest of total earnings growth in the year from May to July of the previous year, CPI (Consumer Prices Index) inflation in September of the previous year, or 2.5%.

The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed a rise in total wage growth including bonuses to 4.7% in the quarter to July, up from 4.6% in the three months to June.

While the final piece of the puzzle will not come until inflation figures for September are published in October, it is thought unlikely that the rate of Consumer Prices Index will be higher than 4.7%.

Inflation currently stands at 3.8%, with the latest data for August due out on Wednesday.

UK labour market cools as pay growth slows and job losses rise

The UK’s jobs market has continued to cool, according to official figures, amid a slowdown in annual pay growth and rising redundancies, Richard Partington reports. Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show annual growth in regular earnings, excluding bonuses, slowed to 4.8% in the three months to July, down from 5% in the three months to June, matching the forecasts of City economists.

Here is the full story.

Starmer to chair cabinet as polling shows only 26% of Labour members approve of his leadership

Good morning. Keir Starmer chairs cabinet this morning having lost his deputy PM, his ambassador to Washington and his strategy chief all within less than a fortnight.

The Commons starts a four-week recess this evening, which will provide some respite. (If MPs are out of Westminster, they are less likely to engage in dissident plotting.) But before they head off, MPs will spend three hours in a debate on Peter Mandelson, which is likely to focus on whether Starmer was right to appoint him in the first place and whether he has been fully candid about what he knew about the Mandelson emails to Jeffrey Epstein when he defended the ambassador at PMQs last week.

And there is more bad news for Starmer this morning. Survation has published a poll of Labour party members, in partnership with LabourList, that suggests:

• Only 25% of them think Labour is heading in the right direction.

• Only 26% of them have a favourable opinion of Starmer as leader, against 59% of them who view him unfavourably.

• Lucy Powell, who was sacked by Starmer as leader of the Commons, has a clear lead over Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, in the contest to be deputy leader. Phillipson is viewed as the loyalist, pro-Starmer candidate, while Powell is seen as the choice for members who want to express some dissent.

Poll on Labour’s deputy leadership contest Photograph: Survation

All polling is potentially fallible, party membership polling is particularly difficult (because the relatively small number of members makes getting a weighted sample much harder than it is with normal polling), and in some respects the views of party members are fairly irrelevant at the moment. The chances of a leadership challenge anytime soon still look very slight, and even if Powell (seen, rightly or wrongly, as an Andy Burnham proxy), were to win the deputy leadership, the post carries almost no formal power within Labour. Just ask Tom Watson.

Still, the polling doesn’t look good.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9.30am: Keir Starmer chairs cabinet.

Morning: Starmer meets relatives of people killed at Hillsborough to mark the publication today of the public office (accountablity) bill, aka the Hillsborough law.

Morning: Kemi Badenoch is on a visit in London.

11.30am: David Lammy takes questions in the Commons for the first time in his new role as justice secretary.

11.55am: Sarah Jones, the policing minister, gives a speech to the Police Superintendents’ Association.

Noon: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.

Lunchtime: Wes Streeting, the health secretary, visits the London Ambulance Service to publicise an NHS winter planning exercise.

After 12.30pm: MPs begin a three-hour emergency debate initiated by the Tory MP David Davis on the “appointment process and the circumstances leading to the dismissal of the former UK ambassador to the US, Lord Mandelson”.

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