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North Korea’s launch last week of a missile from a naval destroyer elicited an uncharacteristically prosaic analysis from the country’s leader, Kim Jong-un. The launch was proof, he said, that arming ships with nuclear weapons was “making satisfactory progress”.
But the test, and Kim’s mildly upbeat appraisal, were designed to reverberate well beyond the deck of the 5,000-tonne destroyer-class vessel the Choe Hyon – the biggest warship in the North Korean fleet.
His pointed reference to nuclear weapons was made as the US and Israel continued their air bombardment of Iran – a regime Donald Trump had warned, without offering evidence, was only weeks away from having a nuclear weapon.
The widening war in the Middle East – and the existential threat to the Iranian regime – has likely reinforced North Korea’s decision to build a nuclear arsenal. For Kim and the dynasty that has ruled North Korea since it was founded by his grandfather in 1948, the nuclear programme is about nothing less than regime survival.
“Kim must have thought Iran was attacked like that because it didn’t have nuclear weapons,” Song Seong-jong, a professor at Daejeon University and a former official of South Korea’s defence ministry, said after the Middle East conflict erupted.
North Korea is several years into a nuclear weapons programme that has gathered momentum despite UN sanctions and Trump’s attempts to use diplomacy to rid the Korean peninsula of nuclear weapons.
The North conducted its first nuclear test as long ago as 2006 and its most recent in 2017, although doubts persist over the size of Pyongyang’s arsenal and its ability to marry a miniaturised nuclear warhead with a long-range missile theoretically capable of striking the US mainland.
According to a report released in 2025 by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the North has assembled about 50 warheads and possesses enough fissile material to produce up to 40 more.
What is certain is Kim’s decision to make nuclear deterrence a priority – and forging a loose alliance with Russia and China – has guaranteed that he will avoid the fate of the former leaders of Iraq and Libya, and now Venezuela and Iran.
The North Korean foreign ministry’s response to the war in Iran has been nuanced. It condemned the US and Israeli airstrikes last weekend as an “illegal act of aggression” that exposed Washington’s “hegemonic and rogue” instincts, but stopped short of condemning Trump by name.
That leaves the door open to a potential resumption of nuclear talks, contingent on Washington dropping its demand that Pyongyang abandon its nuclear weapons and accepting it as a legitimate nuclear state.
“If the United States withdraws its policy of confrontation with North Korea by respecting our country’s current status … there is no reason why we cannot get along well with the US,” KCNA quoted Kim as saying at a ruling party congress last month.
What’s less clear in the minds of analysts is whether the Iran war opens up a new opportunity for talks or pushes the North Korean regime to be more inward looking.
Sydney Seiler, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, believes the conflict has made a nuclear deal between Washington and Pyongyang less likely.
“President Trump’s willingness to use military force and threats for negotiating leverage must make Kim nervous and less likely to hastily seek talks,” said Seiler, a former US special envoy who worked on the six-party talks on the North’s nuclear programme.
But other analysts said Kim’s desire to secure the regime’s long-term survival – and his rumoured personal rapport with the US president – could draw him back to the negotiating table.
“Unlike Iran, it’s impossible to denuclearise North Korea,” said Cho Han-bum, of the state-run Korea Institute for National Unification, citing the presence of nuclear sites across the isolated country. Going into those talks as head of a state with a nuclear deterrence could give Kim the latitude to win concessions from Trump, including security guarantees.
Trump has repeatedly said he would be open to meeting Kim, prompting speculation the two could hold talks when Trump visits China at the end of the month.
If those talks materialise, Kim knows he will be negotiating from a position of strength. As the Iranian leadership is finding to its cost, nuclear possession – not ambition – appears to be the path to security.
Agencies contributed reporting
