UK economy shrank in September as JLR hack hammers production output – business live

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Chart: How growth has slowed in recent months

Although the Jaguar Land Rover attack clearly caused a drop in activity (its UK factories were closed through September), there has also been a wider slowdown.

This chart show how the rolling three month estimate of growth has weakened since the spring:

A chart showing UK GDP Illustration: ONS

JLR hack drove UK economy into unexpected contraction in September

Ouch! The UK economy shrank in September, today’s GDP report shows, as the cyber-attack on Jaguar Land Rover hammered activity in the manufacturing sector.

UK GDP fell by 0.1% in September, following no growth in August (revised down from a previous estimate of growth of 0.1%) and an unrevised fall of 0.1% in July.

That’s an unwelcome surprise, City economists had expected GDP to be unchanged in the month.

Production output fell by 2.0% in September, mainly because of a 28.6% decline in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers. That knocked 0.17 percentage points from monthly GDP.

Services and construction output both increased by 0.2% in the month.

September’s contraction pulled growth down to just 0.1% across the third quarter of the year (see earlier post).

ONS Director of Economic Statistics Liz McKeown says:

“Across the quarter as a whole manufacturing drove the weakness in production. There was a particularly marked fall in car production in September, reflecting the impact of a cyber incident, as well as a decline in the often-erratic pharmaceutical industry.

UK economy grew 0.1% in July-September

Newsflash: Growth across the UK economy has slowed in the third quarter of the year.

UK GDP expanded by just 0.1% in July-September - down from 0.3% in April-June – a weak pace of growth.

And if you adjust for population, there was no growth at all – with real GDP per head unchanged.

The services sector grew by 0.2%, while construction expanded by 0.1% – and the production sector contracted by 0.5%.

While we wait for the UK GDP report in 15 minutes, we also have evidence that the UK housing market cooled in October.

Buyer demand, sales activity and new instructions all fell further into negative territory, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors reports this morning.

Surveyors strongly attribute the slowdown to mounting uncertainty ahead of the forthcoming Autumn Budget and potential tax-raising measures, RICS says.

Introduction: It's UK GDP Day

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

The UK economy will be under the microscope today, less than two weeks before a crucial budget.

The latest GDP data, to be released at 7am, will show how the economy fared in September, and over the third quarter of this year. Economists predict small quarterly growth – of perhaps 0.2%, down from 0.3% in April-June.

September could be trickier, though; the economy may have felt the chill of pre-budget uncertainty. It certainly faced disruption in the auto sector, with carmaker Jaguar Land Rover forced to suspend production for the month due to a cyber attack.

The JLR hack drove car production at British factories to the lowest level for a September since 1952, which will surely hit the wider measure of activity.

A poor GDP report will intensify the criticism of chancellor Rachel Reeves’s handling of the economy, as she prepares her budget statement on 26 November.

Weak growth could also spur the Bank of England towards cutting interest rates again, with a December cut already looking quite likely….

The agenda

• 7am GMT: UK GDP report for September, and Q3 2025

• 7am GMT: UK trade report for September

• 9am GMT: IEA’s monthly oil market repor

• Noon BST: Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene: Panellist at Chatham house event ‘Is the age of central bank independence under threat?’