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There are losses, and then there are those defeats that show us exactly who a team are. The Steelers’ 26-24 win over the Ravens on Sunday night was the latter. It wasn’t just a loss; it was a referendum. The game was vintage, grubby, beautiful AFC North football. A rivalry game with a playoff place on the line. Big plays. Dumb decisions. Cris Collinsworth making unintelligible noises on commentary. In the final three minutes, four plays swung the win probability by more than 40 percentage points.
The Steelers, missing DK Metcalf and Darnell Washington, scored on four of their five second-half drives, three of them touchdowns, with Aaron Rodgers finding Calvin Austin for a 26-yard score with 55 seconds left. Baltimore, by contrast, couldn’t get out of their own way until Lamar Jackson strapped on his cape, completing seven of his final nine passes, throwing two touchdowns and converting a ridiculously clutch fourth-down strike to Isaiah Likely with 21 seconds left and the season on the line.
It should have been the defining moment of Baltimore’s year. Instead, they botched it. With 12 seconds remaining and a timeout in hand, the Ravens took a knee. They had plenty of time to churn out an extra five or 10 yards, to turn the 44-yard field goal attempt into a chip shot and kill the clock. But John Harbaugh chose safety. Rookie kicker Tyler Loop missed the kick wide right. The Steelers celebrated a division title and the AFC’s No 4 seed. Baltimore went home.
It was classic Harbaugh. He has spent years skirting the edge of something great without ever quite stepping into it. The Ravens have been waiting to make The Leap for four seasons. They have lost in the wildcard round, the divisional round and the conference championship. Now, in a wide-open AFC, they haven’t even made the dance. Their record with Jackson in the playoffs stands at 3-5. They haven’t cashed in on his prime, and the failures are starting to blur together.
For years, Harbaugh’s strategic vision – which is vital in win-or-go-home games – has dimmed. The best coaches store up sneak attacks for specific opponents, pick on weak spots until they gush blood and go to creative lengths to hide the deficiencies on their own rosters. Being late finding the right countermove can cost you a game, a playoff berth or a championship. The margin for error is that small, and Harbaugh doesn’t seem to have the goods. And in the biggest moments, his teams play tight.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported on Sunday that Harbaugh’s future is “up in the air.” That’s fair. He has overseen 18 seasons of mostly sustained success in Baltimore and won a Super Bowl in the 2012 campaign. But that was a long time ago. And the disappointments since then far outstrip the highs.
This season was particularly cruel. An early injury crisis crushed the team on both sides of the ball. Jackson spent the season playing through various injuries. Nnamdi Madubuike, the linchpin of the team’s pass-rush, missed the bulk of the year with a neck injury. Harbaugh barely got to coach the version of the team he envisioned. But it’s also the second wasted year with the Jackson-Henry backfield combination, with poor plans along the offensive line and on defense.
The Ravens also looked unprepared on defense. Harbaugh promised changes in the middle of the season and the team traded edge-rusher Odafe Oweh to the Chargers for safety Alohi Gilman. The defense, able to push Kyle Hamilton closer to the line of scrimmage, got back on track. Getting healthier certainly helped, too. From Week 9 onwards, Baltimore’s defense ranked seventh in success rate and ninth in defensive EPA per play. But it was too late. And in crunch time, the Ravens defense fell apart again, giving up a late touchdown drive to a Steelers team with no timeouts and a dysfunctional group of wide receivers in 60 seconds.
Harbaugh deserves credit for breathing new life into his tenure. It’s easy to say Jackson has carried his coach, but it was Harbaugh who believed in the quarterback before the rest of the league woke up to his talent. The partnership peaked for two years, with Jackson falling a single vote short of back-to-back MVPs last season. Anyone suggesting Harbaugh is a dolt must reckon with his 180 wins, his pre-Jackson Super Bowl ring and Jackson’s 2023 and 2024 seasons.
But partnerships, like teams, can grow stale. Next season will be year nine for Harbaugh and Jackson, and they look further away now than they did when they last missed the postseason, in 2021. Jackson has just two years left on his contract – and there are rumors of tension between the head coach and quarterback. A jolt of something – anything – new is what the Ravens need.
If Harbaugh is let go, the hottest name will be Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, who spent his early coaching career in Baltimore. If the Ravens step outside the familiar, they could pair up Jackson with an offensive mind with fresh ideas, whether that’s Mike McDaniel, Klint Kubiak or Kliff Kingsbury.
Harbaugh has been the model of consistency – before and after his Super Bowl win. But when you’re working with a once-in-a-lifetime quarterback, consistency is not enough. Failing to reach the Super Bowl, let alone win one, becomes a fireable offence. The Ravens are talented. They are close. But close has become the problem. When your season ends with a knee and a missed kick, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that the moment finally passed Harbaugh by.
MVP of the week
Nick Emmanwori, S, Seahawks. It felt fitting that Seattle clinched the NFC’s No 1 seed in the most Seattle way possible: playing suffocating defense. The 49ers were in scorching form coming into the winner-takes-the-top-spot contest – they had put up at least 37 points in three straight games. None of that mattered on Saturday. Seattle’s defense restricted the 49ers to a solitary field goal in a 13-3 victory, holding Kyle Shanahan’s offense to its third-worst success rate of the season.
Emmanwori proved to be the difference-maker again. Seattle are loaded with stars across their defense, but Emmanwori ties the three levels together. He posted the highest pressure rate (40%) of any Seattle pass-rusher, led the team in run stops (three) and gave up just 28 yards on seven targets in coverage. Without Emmanwori, the Seahawks’ defense would be great. With him, it is special. Because of his size, speed, versatility and intelligence, the Seahawks can get to defensive looks that few others in the league can replicate. It’s hard to think of another rookie who has stepped into the league and shouldered Emmanwori’s workload on a league-leading defense.
The reward is significant. Barring a Super Bowl return to Levi’s Stadium in February, the Seahawks won’t be packing a suitcase for the rest of the season. And they will enter the postseason as the NFC’s most complete team. Their defense is the best in football, they top the charts on special teams and their run game has finally come alive. If Sam Darnold can stay within himself – a fairly substantial “if”, even now – Seattle should make it back to San Francisco.
Video of the week
He did it! Myles Garrett wrapped up his brilliant campaign by breaking the league’s single-season sack record. His 23rd sack of the year, against Cincinnati in the fourth quarter, pushed him past Michael Strahan and TJ Watt for the top spot. And he did so in a way only he can: Garrett crossed the line of scrimmage 0.23 seconds after the snap, the fastest get-off on any sack this season, according to Next Gen Stats.
It was a strange game overall for Garrett. He abandoned other responsibilities and focused almost exclusively (and understandably) on the record. But Cincy were equally focused on stopping him from chasing history. He faced a double team or chip block on 42% of his pass-rushes, the highest rate in a game this season, with Joe Burrow also shaving almost half a second off his average time to throw. Eventually, though, Garrett got home.
There will be some whining about extra games, circumstances, or, if you’re Zac Taylor, the post-sack celebrations. None of it sticks. Garrett picked up the record in 432 pass-rushing snaps, 100 fewer than Strahan and almost 200 fewer than Watt during their record-breaking years. He will finish the season with another Defensive Player of the Year award and a cool note on his Hall of Fame plaque.
Stat of the week
Zero. The Jets have managed the unthinkable: they completed a 17-game season without intercepting a pass. Yes, you read that right. Zero. They’re the first team in NFL history to go a full season without an interception.
It is hard to overstate how impossible that should be. Jalyx Hunt, the Eagles edge-rusher, has three alone this season. Eventually, a tipped ball or a dumb quarterback decision goes your way. Not for these stanktastic Jets. They finished the season 3-14 after being pounded by the backup Bills 35-8.
It’s the kind of historical anomaly that should get any coach fired. Making a coach one-and-done is brutal. But Aaron Glenn has done nothing in his single season in charge to prove he has the makings of even a competent head coach. His game management has been poor, the team’s offense devoid of ideas and the defense, Glenn’s calling card, has been uncompetitive. Over the last five weeks of the season, the Jets’ average point differential was minus-26.8. There’s losing, and then there’s quitting. The Jets’ players look like they chose the latter over the final months of the season. When that happens, the coach should be toast. Although even without Glenn the team would still be stuck with bumbling owner Woody Johnson, who has overseen a Jets playoff drought that stretches back to the 2010 season.
Elsewhere around the league
The Panthers fell into the NFC South title despite trying to throw it away. They’d already lost to Tampa Bay on Saturday, then waited as Atlanta beat New Orleans 19-17 on Sunday in a game that existed mostly to decide someone else’s fate. If someone had to win the NFC South, then it was only right that it came in a sloppy game filled with blocked punts, fumbles, interceptions and mistakes. Everyone was playing for someone else in Atlanta, which pretty much summed up the division. It ended dumb because it had been dumb all along. The Panthers took a three-way tie at the top of the standings, clinching the No 4 seed in the NFC with an 8-9 record.
Jags kicker Cam Little hit a 67-yard field goal against the Titans on Sunday like it was nothing – it was probably good from 73 yards. It was the second-longest field goal in NFL history, the longest ever made outdoors and a timely reminder that Little will be a unique weapon for Jacksonville in tight postseason games. This is not a one-off. Little has already hit from a record 68 yards this season and drilled an unofficial record 70-yarder in the preseason. Kickers are now so damn good that it makes you wonder if the league should change rules. Narrow the goalposts? Create a “field goal zone”? Or just delight in seeing someone do something that feels superhuman?
For the final quarter of the season, the Colts gave us a fun storyline. Philip Rivers’ return was a joy, but it masked a brutal end-of-year slide. They lost 38-30 to the Texans on Sunday, ending the year at 8-9. At one point, they were six games over .500 yet still finished with a losing record, the first team in the Super Bowl era to do so. Despite the collapse, the Colts have already announced that coach Shane Steichen and GM Chris Ballard will return next season.
With a 34-17 win over the Cowboys on Sunday, the Giants are 8-30 in their last 38 games. Four of those eight wins have come in Week 17 or 18, when they’ve long been eliminated from playoff contention and are playing only for draft positioning. Dallas understood the assignment, benching their starters to bolster their slot in the draft order. The Giants did what they do: win a meaningless January game to slip from the No 2 slot to No 5 in this year’s draft.
The top of the draft order is now set. The top 10: Raiders; Jets; Cardinals; Titans; Giants; Browns; Commanders; Saints; Chiefs; Bengals. The last time the Raiders held the No 1 overall pick was in 2007, when they drafted one of the biggest busts in NFL history, LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell. Good luck, Fernando Mendoza!
The playoff bracket is also set. In the AFC wildcard round, the Texans (No 5 seed) face the Steelers (4); the Chargers (7) play the Patriots (2); and the Jaguars (3) take on the Bills (6) while the No 1 seed Broncos get a bye. In the NFC, the Seahawks are the No 1 seed and skip to the divisional round. In the wildcard round, the Rams (5) play the Panthers (4); the Packers (7) face the Bears (2); and the 49ers (6) are up against the reigning champion Eagles (3).
